ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
rainstorm

#81 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:19 am

models dont seem too impressed but i have to think this one wont head out to sea with that huge high forming in the NW atlantic
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#82 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:31 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#83 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:43 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So, we have Tropical Depression Ten!
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

#84 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:03 am

Maybe, maybe not yet.
It has been re-renumbered shortly thereafter.
I was wondering why they put 'LO' along with 'TEN' and didn't use 'TD'.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962012.ren
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#85 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:12 am

22/1200 UTC 12.2N 35.7W T2.0/2.0 96L
22/0545 UTC 11.8N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 NAME
0 likes   

rainstorm

#86 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:32 am

JB:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

new tropical cyclone developing in atlantic should have path north of Isaac.Like Isaac early recurve not a lock

i agree. the more west isaac goes the more west this one will go.
0 likes   

San Felipe II
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:58 am

#87 Postby San Felipe II » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:34 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102012
AL, 10, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 215W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 239W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 102N, 262W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 274W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 288W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 303W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 317W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 329W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082206, , BEST, 0, 115N, 343W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#88 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:59 am

From NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ROD=1km_bw



20120822.1315.96LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-122N-357W
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re:

#89 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:59 am

San Felipe II wrote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
[...]


Yeah, that was the first one issued at 1225Z,
then they changed it back at 1241Z (see my previous post) and now they seem to have renewed/updated the renumber 96->10 file (at 1350Z):

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221350
[...]

So currently, we are on the TD 10 side, still no "TD" designation in the AL10 BT file though (http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest)
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#90 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:52 am

This is farther south of Isaac - that makes it even less likely to recurve? Could this just go straight across the Caribbean like Ernesto?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:57 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31390
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#92 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:03 am

Track will be interesting, if it moves faster than expected and Issac ends up further west this ssytem may end up playing a small part in the eventual track.

I suspect this will be a hurricane eventually down the line, maybe a Bermuda risk?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#93 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:25 am

At least for the time being, it looks like they're keeping the track off-shore.
0 likes   

Chickenzilla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)

#94 Postby Chickenzilla » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:36 am

The convection is currently not very deep. :darrow:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
kristina
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:48 am
Location: Virginia

#95 Postby kristina » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:45 am

Is there something out there that will steer this storm away from the East Coast(VA, NC) and out to the open water, or is the track going to stay straight to land?
0 likes   
Kristina

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#96 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:50 am

Kristina: Welcome to S2K! Nice display pic, that was an interesting 13th birthday for me (the hurricane).

On to your question: right now it is too far out to know for sure, even the 5 day point is low confidence, because some models want to take TD 10 further north than the current forecast, while others want to go further south...so right now it is a wait and see.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

User avatar
kristina
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:48 am
Location: Virginia

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression

#97 Postby kristina » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:53 am

Thank you. Just curiosity kicken in... I have been following this site since Isabel and every season after and just decided to join. Are house was the only one without damage to it in the area when she hit us...Luck I suppose
0 likes   
Kristina

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#98 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:58 am

I was on the western side of the eye, the bottom river, I lived right at the bottom point of the "V" it makes.

Yeah, once 10 reaches the 3 or 4 day point, we should know a lot more! There should be a model thread (floating around somewhere), usually images from the runs are posted in there.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:14 pm

20120822 1800 13.0 36.6 T2.0/2.0 10L NONAME
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression

#100 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:34 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking fairly disorganized - cloudtops are warming and there is a slightly elongated appearance from north to south. It looked much better today, when it formed into a depression.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests