ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Ok if that ULL or High (whatever it is) to the NW of Isaac moves a little more to the NE and closes that small weakness. Wouldn't that cause the system to basically stall and move West.

[fasterdisaster]

Aren't 74 kt FL winds enough for an upgrade at 11? Are the winds not translating to the surface?

[Tireman4]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Do you have a link to the story or a video?

Here ya go


http://www.khou.com/community/WATCH-Dr- ... 20065.html

[mesoclone]

20-25mph wind gusts here in Navarre, Florida from what I can tell.

[FutureEM]

This is by far the most frustrating atlantic storm I have ever seen ever.

[ATCcane]

Seems as though he's slowed his forward speed up a bit this evening. Didn't really expect that until closer to the coastline. This may be the "fork" in the road.....which way from here ?

[Cdenton12]

Ok if that ULL or High (whatever it is) to the NW of Isaac moves a little more to the NE and closes that small weakness. Wouldn't that cause the system to basically stall and move West.

Wondering same thing???



Not official , no clue what I talking bout

[capepoint]

Aren't 74 kt FL winds enough for an upgrade at 11? Are the winds not translating to the surface?

apparently they are not mixing down very quickly, however, I would halfway expect an upgrade at 11 just because it is so close to hurricane strength right now, and time to landfall is getting short. If not at 11, 5 for sure, unless it poofs which is highly unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Jake8898]

Are the winds closer to the northeastern eyewall slower than, say, 35 miles east of the northeastern eyewall?

I ask because WWL TV just showed a graphic of predicted winds where Hammond, La. which will be about 5 miles east of the northeastern eyewall has top winds of 56mph, Mandeville which is about 20 miles east of the NE eyewall has 62mph, and Slidell which is about 35 miles east of the NE eyewall has 68mph.

I thought the fastest winds were in the eyewall itself.

[jasons2k]

While I'd never disagree with advice to monitor the situation and be prepared to act if needed, not a chance this comes to Texas. Those in LA/MS need to take this seriously and prepare for a landfalling hurricane with a possible significant storm surge and levee test.
......
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[capepoint]

Are the winds closer to the northeastern eyewall slower than, say, 35 miles east of the northeastern eyewall?

I ask because WWL TV just showed a graphic of predicted winds where Hammond, La. which will be about 5 miles east of the northeastern eyewall has top winds of 56mph, Mandeville which is about 20 miles east of the NE eyewall has 62mph, and Slidell which is about 35 miles east of the NE eyewall has 68mph.

I thought the fastest winds were in the eyewall itself.

This is very possible in a weak system.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:





Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

[Cdenton12]

Was anyone or anything showing a stall before landfall???
doesn't look like its moving ???





Not official , no clue what I'm talking about

[gboudx]

Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:

Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

How good has the HRRR been to this point?

[windnrain]

I wonder if this thing ever will have an eye.

If it hits the 100mph the NHC predicts, it would have to, right?

[Blinhart]

Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:

http://i49.tinypic.com/1z20r3l.png



Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

is that what he actually looks like right now? If so what a change in the last couPle hours.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:

Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

How good has the HRRR been to this point?

It's been pretty accurate ever since Isaac crossed through Hispaniola.

[capepoint]

on a side note, that persistent line of weather from the east fl coast earlier today has broken free from Issac and is working its way up the coast. tons of rain for the carolina coast tomorrow into wed as it merges with a system dropping down from the nw.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:

http://i49.tinypic.com/1z20r3l.png



Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

is that what he actually looks like right now? If so what a change in the last couPle hours.

That's not what Isaac looks like at the moment. That's at the end of the HRRR run. So that's what it "could" look like down the road. If it gets its act together fast enough.

[jasons2k]

Here's the HRRR at the end of its run so far:
Without a doubt we're going to be seeing some sort of intensification tonight and tomorrow.

How good has the HRRR been to this point?

Excellent, so something to strongly consider.