WPAC: TEMBIN - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#161 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:29 am

Image

down to 90 knots from it's secondary peak of 100 knots and expected to weaken further...

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 36.0N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.3E.
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
FROM TY 16W. THIS INTERACTION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED AND THE CENTER HAS
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN; HOWEVER, A 261227Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THUS
PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW. TY 15W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK INTERACTION OCCURRING WITH TY 16W, WHICH IS CENTERED 695
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY 15W'S CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24 AND WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD TO THE EAST AS TY 16W TRACKS QUICKLY POLEWARD INTO THE YELLOW
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER,
OR PERHAPS JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH A 400 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FAVORS THE ECMWF AND
JGSM SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. TY 15W IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SHANGHAI
REGION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
SPREAD AT TAU 120. GFDN IS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER WHILE UKMO
REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIER WITH A POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. THE JTWC FORECAST ALSO FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WARNINGS. TY 15W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
SHOULD DECREASE TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. BASED ON THE COMPLEX
AND WEAK STEERING PATTERN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION WITH
TY 16W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#162 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:32 pm

Image

80 knots and weakening as it nears taiwan...


WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.2N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.4N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 34.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 37.7N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THE PRIOR WEAKENING TREND HAS LEVELED OFF AND
CONVECTION IS RE-BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM TY 16W HAS EASED, ITS
EFFECTS ARE STILL SEEN IN MSI AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS
PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND A 262212Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPROVING CONVECTION. TY
15W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
INTERACTION OCCURRING WITH TY 16W, WHICH IS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY
685 NM NORTHEAST OF TY 15W'S CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST AS TY 16W TRACKS QUICKLY POLEWARD INTO
THE YELLOW SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN POLEWARD AND
ACCELERATE JUST EAST OF, OR POSSIBLY OVER TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A 250+ NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING
THE ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. THE
GFS MODEL IS THE MAJOR EASTERN OUTLIER, WITH A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
INTO THE YELLOW SEA. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THOUGH
TAU 36 DUE TO ONGOING INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON AN EAST-OF-TAIWAN FORECAST SCENARIO, HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK COULD FURTHER DEGRADE THE INTENSITY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE COAST SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
NEAR TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A LARGE SPREAD AT TAU 120. GFDN
IS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER WHEREAS GFS REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST
OUTLIER, WITH A FASTER TRANSLATION SPEED RESULTING IN A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
WARNINGS. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. BASED ON
THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN, UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LAND INTERACTION
WITH TAIWAN, AS WELL AS LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#163 Postby Meow » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:52 pm

euro6208 wrote:80 knots and weakening as it nears taiwan...

The JTWC is not the RSMC. You should also take a look at the JMA’s information.
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Meow

#164 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:20 am

As Tembin maintained strength, it is currently as strong as Bolaven.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 27 August 2012

<Analyses at 27/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°40'(20.7°)
E118°35'(118.6°)
Direction and speed of movement E 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E120°10'(120.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°40'(26.7°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E121°55'(121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#165 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:49 am

Image

tembin should make landfall within the next few hours in the same area it hit several days ago!

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.3N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 32.2N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 36.0N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 40.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 120.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z,
280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
271215Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL-ORGANIZED
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TY 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY
NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO STEER ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. NOGAPS, GFS AND UKMO INDICATE
A RAPID TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE ECMWF, GFDN AND JGSM
INDICATE SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS NORTHWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF AND JGSM MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SHANGHAI
REGION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
SPREAD AT TAU 96 AND 120 AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND JGSM,
HAS BEEN VERY ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF MODELS: GFDN, ECMWF AND JGSM TRACKING
TOWARD SHANGHAI AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHINA COAST; AND NOGAPS,
UKMO AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN YELLOW SEA. THE
MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF
MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE STR WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA
AFTER TY 16W TRACKS INTO MANCHURIA. INSTEAD THEY INDICATE A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE YELLOW SEA, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE STR WESTWARD AND INDICATE A
SLOWER MORE GRADUAL RE-CURVE IN THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS. TY 15W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COOLER SST AND SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BASED ON THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND THE
ERRATIC NATURE OF HALF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#166 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:51 am

Image

eyewall lashing southern taiwan!
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

#167 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:38 pm

Tembin is already located south of Eluanbi... No second landfall over Taiwan anymore. :ggreen:
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Meow

#168 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:43 pm

Tembin did not make landfall, and it has slightly weakened.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 27 August 2012

<Analyses at 27/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°50'(21.8°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°30'(23.5°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°35'(25.6°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°50'(29.8°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°30'(33.5°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)
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Meow

#169 Postby Meow » Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:04 pm

I cannot realise why the JTWC downgraded Tembin to a TS so early.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 036
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.5N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.3N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.5N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 41.0N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 46.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 121.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#170 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:21 pm

:uarrow: indeed, Lanyu Island is constantly reporting typhoon-force winds and they just a gust of 180kph! :eek:
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Meow

Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Typhoon

#171 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:20 am

The JMA still mentioned Tembin as a typhoon.

Image

TY 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 28 August 2012

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°10'(24.2°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE110km(60NM)
NW70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Estimate for 28/07 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N24°25'(24.4°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE110km(60NM)
NW70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05'(26.1°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°20'(28.3°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE240km(130NM)
NW200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°00'(33.0°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°20'(36.3°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)
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Meow

#172 Postby Meow » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:06 am

The JMA downgraded Tembin to a STS again.

Image

STS 1214 (TEMBIN)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 28 August 2012

<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°25'(25.4°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE110km(60NM)
NW70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Estimate for 28/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°35'(25.6°)
E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE110km(60NM)
NW70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area SE200km(110NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°50'(29.8°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area SE260km(140NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°50'(34.8°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area SE440km(240NM)
NW410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°55'(37.9°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#173 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:36 am

Image

50 knots...

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.8N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.7N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 34.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.5N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 39.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 123.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 281203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOW FLARING CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEPEST CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY,
ALONG WITH RADAR FIXES FROM TAIWAN, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DUE TO DECREASING DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS, RECENT 11Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 41 KNOTS, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 15W IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS ANCHORED TO THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER OKINAWA. SUCH POSITIONING IS CAUSING FOR WEAK TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NER WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS, AFTER WHICH, THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR WILL THEN SEAMLESSLY TAKE OVER AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS STR WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS TS 16W PROPAGATES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TS 15W TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD, AND CLOSER TO
SEOUL, THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE BUT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO FAVORABLE (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
AND A STEADY STATE OF VWS. BY TAU 36 SST'S DRASTICALLY DROP DUE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRANSIT OF TS 16W AND VWS WILL INCREASE AS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING RESIDES OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA. TS 15W WILL BE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 WHEN IT WILL BE
MAKING LANDFALL.
C. TS 15W WILL HAVE COMPLETED ETT BY TAU 72. OBJECTIVE AID
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY THE GFDN REMAINING AS
THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THIS TIGHT GROUPING.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#174 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:23 am

Image

....it looks like tembin wants to visit south korea following in the footstep of his lil bro, bolaven which visited north korea lol


WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 29.1N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 32.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 38.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 124.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
42//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 290153Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE 290154Z ASCAT PASS WHICH
INDICATED THAT TS 15W STILL MAINTAINS 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS TEMBIN IS SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
JAPAN TO DIRECTLY OVER TAIWAN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MODERATE
AT 20 KNOTS OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. STRONGER (> 30
KNOTS) VWS RESIDES NORTH OF 30N ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. INCREASED DIVERGENCE IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION CAN BE SEEN IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS TS 15W
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY STEERING
NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND LONGWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24 THE
LLCC WILL TRACK MORE EASTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) TRACKING TO THE NORTH
OF THE STR. TS 15W WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO SO WITH THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN
THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 24 TS 15W WILL BE UNDER VERY STRONG VWS AND
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (< 26C). THIS WILL CAUSE A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
PROCESS. BY TAU 36 ETT WILL BE COMPLETE AND THE LLCC WILL BE EXITING
THE KOREAN PENINSULA INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE LEFTMOST
OUTLIER (WBAR) JUST NORTH OF KUNSAN, AND RIGHTMOST OUTLIER (GFDN)
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF SOUTH KOREA, DURING LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS KEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE HIGHLY UNLIKELY GFDN TRACKER BACK WEST INTO
THE YELLOW SEA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BASED
ON TIGHT MODEL GROUPING.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

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RobWESTPACWX
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Posts: 1615
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Re: WPAC: TEMBIN - Severe Tropical Storm

#175 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:29 pm

Really unfortunate for Korea, Bolaven caused 20 deaths now Tembin comes in with the 1-2 punch. Meanwhile Western Japan is still drenched as well with nearly 6.5 cm of rainfall since last weekend. Crazy stuff.

I made a video kind of wrapping it up if it helps.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucQ97UTIaEg[/youtube]
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