WPAC: INVEST 99W

[Meow]

Northeast of Iō-tō. This was originally 94W.

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 101200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 29N 146E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 30.6N
148.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. A
092323Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 092322Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL, DEVELOPING LLCC
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED NORTH
OF THE CENTER; THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT YET WRAPPED INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND IS UNDER MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK,
BROAD, EXPOSED CIRCULATION EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 26.0N
144.4E. BASED ON THE DEFINED CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON THE RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Meow]

The U.S. Navy regretted. They believe 99W has dissipated, not 90W. However, the JMA still reported that 99W is the centre of the TD.



WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 30N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA just upgraded this system into tropical depression "KAREN"

[euro6208]

PAGASA just upgraded this system into tropical depression "KAREN"

wrong thread...that should be for 17W's thread...

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA just upgraded this system into tropical depression "KAREN"

wrong thread...that should be for 17W's thread...

I'm sorry, I misplaced it... i should have post that in 17w.

[Meow]

The JMA still treated 99W as a TD, but its convection is too weak.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 30.5N
144.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH SIGNS OF
UNRAVELING. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS DCI WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. (SEE PARA 1.B.(1) FOR
FURTHER DISCUSSION ON DCI). THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY REGAIN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EQUATORWARD INTO MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR THE
OTHER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AT THE EXPENSE OF THIS CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

TXPQ26 KNES 110938
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 11/0832Z

C. 29.8N

D. 143.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EXHIBITS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LLCC. BANDING LT 0.2 AS SEEN IN THE DAYS LAST VISIBLE IMAGE RESULTS IN
A DT OF 0.0. MET AND PT ARE LT 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF REGENRATION.

[euro6208]

i think this could be a tropical cyclone...



TXPQ26 KNES 112130
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 11/2101Z

C. 31.7N

D. 145.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW CENTER LESS THAN .75 DEGREES FROM CONVECTION BUT
DT IS HELD TO 2.0 BECAUSE LOW LEVEL CENTER NOT WELL DEFINED. PT=1.5.
MET=1.5. FT BASED ON MET.