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Classification
T2.5/2.5
Moderator: S2k Moderators
cycloneye wrote:Almost a hurricane
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON
THE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL
INNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING. WHILE THE
SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE
INCREASED TO 60 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR. AFTER
THAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP
DECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN
DAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C.
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.
THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE
IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH
72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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