EPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

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Macrocane
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#21 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:03 am

Reminds me to Agatha, developing just before landfall, say welcome to Norman:

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 281401
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO HUATABAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO
HUATABAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN
THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#22 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:03 am

00
WTPZ44 KNHC 281405
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NOW HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SHIPS OBSERVATIONS
OF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ELEVATED ANEMOMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AROUND 40 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN AT THIS TIME. NORMAN IS SITUATED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...SO THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AS NORMAN IS SITUATED
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MAY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH LANDFALL.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
CENTER SINCE NORMAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE
WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR
WESTERN DURANGO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.8N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.5N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 27.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:12 am

This reminds me of Georgette.
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Re:

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:13 am

Extratropical94 wrote:And we should have TS Norman at 8am PDT.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep142012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209281254
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 14, 2012, TS, O, 2012092612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP142012


Just when you think it's not gonna from, it forms.
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#25 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Sep 28, 2012 12:36 pm

Forecast track

Image
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 1:02 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...NORMAN MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO
HUATABAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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#27 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 28, 2012 1:38 pm

18z ATCF brings Norman down to 35 knots:

EP, 14, 2012092818, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1086W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
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#28 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 28, 2012 1:56 pm

Now the Atlantic and Epac are on the "N" name, who would have thought? Both basins tied up after thinking either one would pull way ahead of each other.
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Re:

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 2:02 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Now the Atlantic and Epac are on the "N" name, who would have thought? Both basins tied up after thinking either one would pull way ahead of each other.


Atlantic is still ahead in the ACE department with 90.56 to the EPAC's 85 units.
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Re: Re:

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 28, 2012 2:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:Now the Atlantic and Epac are on the "N" name, who would have thought? Both basins tied up after thinking either one would pull way ahead of each other.


Atlantic is still ahead in the ACE department with 90.56 to the EPAC's 85 units.

Nadine shouldn't count lol! That storm is going in circles over the open Atlantic.

But boy, this one surprised me. I had to second look the Storm2K map thinking Miriam was still alive but it turned out we have Norman now.
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...NORMAN EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 108.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO
HUATABAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LESS-ORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH NORMAN IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GUASAVE MEXICO. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. NORMAN IS IN A RATHER HARSH
ENVIRONMENT OF 30 TO 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS INDICATED ON
THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION IS
SEVERELY TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY
DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE SHEAR
INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER NORMAN MOVES INLAND...
AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/14. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED NORTHWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.4N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 25.6N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 26.2N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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#32 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Sep 28, 2012 4:52 pm

Well a short quick fire storm is allways nice
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...NORMAN LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO
HUATABAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:38 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF NORMAN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT MEXICAN RADAR FROM GUASAVE SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER OF ROTATION IS ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE COAST OF SINALOA. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...WITH ALL
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON THIS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT
NORMAN IS NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER.

NORMAN IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 345/9 KT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD
CAUSE NORMAN TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL...SHOW NORMAN SKIRTING THE COAST AND TURNING
WESTWARD BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IF THAT HAPPENS...THE
CHANCES FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXTREMELY LOW.

EVEN IF NORMAN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL...MOST OF THE
INCLEMENT WEATHER IS LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL STILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS SINALOA AND
WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.2N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 26.0N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 26.3N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:20 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

AFTER MOVING ASHORE ABOUT 10 N MI WEST OF TOPOLOBAMPO AROUND 0500
UTC...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A
SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NORMAN...WITH THE DEPRESSION LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TURN THE SMALL CYCLONE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 24 HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SINALOA
AND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.9N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Yellow Evan
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#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:28 am

Norman hanging on to dear life.
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#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:40 am

Can't believe it is still a TC
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Tropical Depression

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:41 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

NORMAN HAS LACKED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE 0400 UTC...AND IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. THE ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED
TO A DISORGANIZED BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GUASAVE MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT. DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NORMAN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
PENNISULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMS
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re:

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:45 am

Image

Where is the closed LLC?
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Sep 29, 2012 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 29, 2012 3:34 pm

Last advisory written

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

NORMAN HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST
15 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WESTWARD...AND A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA
PENNISULA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
NORMAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING NEAR LOS MOCHIS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 25.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0600Z 25.7N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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