ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nate-Gillson]

If this storm makes it all the way to October 11 (which is highly unlikely), I would be shocked. Nadine is a storm that just won't die.

[CrazyC83]

Imagine the ACE if Nadine was a major hurricane for most of that time...

[yzerfan]

I wonder who the baseball fan is among the forecasters. They used Yogi Berra's 'deja vu all over again' in a previous Nadine discussion.

[brunota2003]

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

A future in being a stunt pilot?

[Weatherguy173]

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

A future in being a stunt pilot?

Exactly, i did not know that hurricanes could move up and down like that.
They seem to be trying too hard with this one.

[greenkat]

Does Nadine have record for largest loop, or is that still Alberto?

[WeatherGuesser]

Hey Luis, where is Nadine now on the list of longest storms?

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.

We should be at day 18 now and with NHC carrying it at or above 50Kts for the next 5 days, 22 is easily within sight, maybe 23 or 24. Can it hang together 4 days beyond that before dissipation to make 28?

[Weatherguy173]

Does Nadine have record for largest loop, or is that still Alberto?

not sure, they practically look the same, however Alberto's was a more "uniform" loop than Nadine's. Nadine's may be a farther distance than Alberto's if you stretch it out and unravel it. I am not 100% sure though.

Here's Alberto's: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png
Here's Nadine's (Just pretend the rest is there): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nadine_2012_track.png

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 75kts.

AL, 14, 2012100100, , BEST, 0, 371N, 393W, 75, 981, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MAKES A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 39.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[Weatherguy173]

that would be cool if two loops it's making give it a look similar to a figure eight, this is truly something

[brunota2003]

With Nadine expected to become extratropical between Wednesday and Thursday, can it still take the top spot for Named Storm days? It might be a close one! Wednesday should make day 21.

[Cyclenall]

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

A future in being a stunt pilot?

What is the record for the most loops a TC has made? This one has made a ton and some within larger ones!!

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.

There are various different categories that we can put Nadine into for longest lasting TC/TD/TS in the Atlantic basin. The first two are consecutive and grand total for a same tropical entity (Hurricanes Ivan and San Ciriaco are in the latter category, Hurricane Ginger in the former). Then the benchmark for how long it lasts: As a tropical/non-tropical entity, tropical entity, tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. The ranking Luis posted is of grand total days at TS strength or higher.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Storm.

AL, 14, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 360N, 393W, 60, 991, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT NEARS THE COMPLETION OF YET ANOTHER LOOP...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 39.2W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of the history of long lasting Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and which system holds the all time world record.

If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.

[Frank2]

Ginger was a trip in more ways than one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ginger_1971_track.png

I recall that some here in South Florida thought it might become another Betsy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Betsy_1965_track.png

[Hurricane_Luis]

TS Nadine

[yzerfan]

From discussion #76

BY DAY 4...
NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN
FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.

[ROCK]

Geez...I keep coming on here in hopes just to see Nadine not on the active list anymore.... the TC season shut down early this year. Makes me all the more concerned about this winter for the CONUS....