ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[Florida1118]

016

WHXX01 KWBC 081303

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1303 UTC MON OCT 8 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121008 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121008 1200 121009 0000 121009 1200 121010 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 37.6W 8.8N 41.2W 9.6N 44.6W 10.5N 47.9W

BAMD 8.2N 37.6W 8.1N 39.7W 8.4N 41.6W 9.1N 43.4W

BAMM 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.7N 42.8W 9.4N 45.3W

LBAR 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.5N 43.0W 8.8N 45.4W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121010 1200 121011 1200 121012 1200 121013 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.4N 51.3W 12.7N 58.1W 13.0N 64.8W 12.7N 70.3W

BAMD 10.0N 45.0W 12.4N 47.3W 15.4N 48.1W 18.7N 47.7W

BAMM 10.3N 47.6W 12.7N 52.0W 14.9N 55.4W 16.8N 58.4W

LBAR 9.4N 47.6W 11.1N 51.5W 14.0N 54.3W 16.8N 55.4W

SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS

DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 30.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[cycloneye]

If 12z GFS pans out,the NE Caribbean islands would be unde the gun. But is still early in the game.

[HurricaneFan]

The new GFS have it only there on Monday?If so,what slows it down so much?
I mean Jeff Masters was saying it can reach the Islands on Friday(possibly even Thursday).So that is quite a difference.

[chaser1]

If what GFS pans out,the NE Caribbean islands would be unde the gun. But is still early in the game.

Hey cycloneeye, just to add to the long range "eye-balling, I had noticed over the last couple days that the GFS 500mb seemed to show significant heights around the 144 hour mark. Looking at the 12Z 500mb just now, I can see where a window would exist, though slightly ominous given ridging north of the system when near P.R. as well as appearant ridging over the Gulf at that time. Of greater interest however was looking at the EURO from last night. Odd as it would be, it would seem plausible depending on timing for a "smallish" type system to possibly try to continue to squirt West/WNW towards Fla. Certainly would seem odd to even think about a late Oct. system potentially approaching the Bahamas from the East (rather than from a more Southerly direction). Then again, timing like always - is everything. Last thing to keep in mind is that historically, October systems that are east of the islands seem to "crawl" westward. Finally, havn't even begun to consider the likely upper level conditions so the entire topic might be mute. Will be interesting to see if the EURO (and other models, outside of CMC) start to come on board over the next few runs

[chaser1]

The new GFS have it only there on Monday?If so,what slows it down so much?
I mean Jeff Masters was saying it can reach the Islands on Friday(possibly even Thursday).So that is quite a difference.

I'd go with the GFS, though not to slight Jeff Masters who I have a high regard for. Once you get into October, I've found over the years that most easterly waves suddently lose the same degree of mid level steering. Rather than coming off Africa with a surge, often times watching waves attempt to traverse the tropical Atlantic becomes like watching glue dry. Seasons are all different of course, and am guessing that after 98L, we won't see any further lower latitude tropical Atlantic development with exception to that which basic climotology might suggest (Central/Western Caribbean).

[cycloneye]

12z CMC animation.Look what happens at the end of run with the movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Fego]

ECM at 12Z, more close to PR than the GFS and CMC runs.

[cycloneye]

Here is one of the GFS ensemble members going much more bullish in intensity than the operational.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to split the energy and send the main part through the N antilles and out to sea while a smaller peice goes towards the west making landfall in central america, I don't know what to make of that maybe possible convective feedback

[vbhoutex]

12z CMC animation.Look what happens at the end of run with the movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is an interesting run!!! Not good for the islands, and maybe not good for the US, with the response to the high closing off, even though I would suspect it would get picked up and taken back out to sea prior to reaching the mainland. And no I have not looked past this run.

[floridasun78]

i hear that high may be strong as summer high pull any system toward west their no front forecast for east coast next week what i see

[cycloneye]

The 00z EURO is more agressive in intensity than past runs.

[wxman57]

It sure doesn't have the look of something that's going to be developing anytime soon.

[CrazyC83]

12z CMC animation.Look what happens at the end of run with the movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is an interesting run!!! Not good for the islands, and maybe not good for the US, with the response to the high closing off, even though I would suspect it would get picked up and taken back out to sea prior to reaching the mainland. And no I have not looked past this run.

Wouldn't that suggest a stalling out of the storm? It seems unlikely in mid-October it would continue west at that latitude...

[fci]

i hear that high may be strong as summer high pull any system toward west their no front forecast for east coast next week what i see

Source of what you are "hearing"?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is quite intriguing. Looks like it sends the area towards the NE Leewards and then moves a weak low west towards the Bahamas/Cuba while developing a deeper low more east that moves NNW. Decoupling perhaps? This is the long-range (252 hours from now) so not sure how much I believe it.

[cycloneye]

What a 24 hour change by CMC at 12z,different from yesterday's run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[tolakram]

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The shear over the Gulf and even Florida looks too destructive to let anything organized through.

Shear forecasts are horrible, so look at this with an entire salt shaker.



The slow movement over the islands is the big concern IMO, and this is the time of year for this kind of trouble.

[gatorcane]

Big timing as well as intensity differences between the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC:

Euro 120 hours:


GFS 120 hours:


CMC 120 hours:

[gatorcane]

Model plots: