EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

Will it be TD Sixteen of straight to TS Paul. Only the NHC will Decide

[Yellow Evan]

They've already decided to up the system via ATCF, and it is Paul.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND
VECTORS AROUND 30 KT.

PAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
CHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE
TURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA
PENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL
TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Paul

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Paul undergo rapid intensification at any point over the next two days. The SHIPS gave the storm a whopping 48% chance of 40-kt rapid intensification.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track up to 45 knots.

EP, 16, 2012101400, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1136W, 45, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 1009, 325, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PAUL, D,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PAUL IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A TIGHTLY CURVED AND COLD CONVECTIVE BAND ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED.
BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KT...A CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0...WHILE A 2215Z AMSU INTENSITY ANALYSIS
FROM CIMSS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KT.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WAS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
STORM. PAUL IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE AND THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO COME OVER OR
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...THE
WEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS PROJECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF MODEL.

PAUL IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF WARM
28C WATERS...VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE HOSTILE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHEAR...SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS...AND A MUCH
DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE GFDL DYNAMICAL MODEL...AND IT
IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS A 66% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 30 KT
INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE
INNER CORE DEVELOPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER LAND
120H 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT
MISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC
ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS
REACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
CAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS
VERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN
THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A
SHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Paul

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CURVED BAND WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KT.

VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
PAUL IS TITLED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
BECOMING BETTER VERTICALLY ALIGNED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE...AND BECAUSE PAUL IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE
MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE TRACK. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND PAUL IS NOW
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.

THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE FEATURES THAT ARE
STEERING PAUL ARE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CAUSING PAUL TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE WEAKENING STORM IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Cyclenall]

THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

Hey look everyone, magical wind shear! Its funny, the discussion went from very low wind shear to this magic wind shear now in the span of two discussions.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

PAUL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS HAVE GAINED
CURVATURE...AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3.5/55 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 50
KT. THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SATCON DATA FROM UW-CIMSS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
PAUL REMAINS OVER WATERS THAT ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND IN A
CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL MOVING INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH COOLER WATER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK SHOULD CAUSE
PAUL TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

PAUL REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO
THE RIGHT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. A NORTHWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[CrazyC83]

15/0000 UTC 15.4N 115.4W T4.0/4.0 PAUL

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF PAUL HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE LAST FEW PASSES REVEALING A NEARLY CLOSED
EYEWALL. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT
APPEAR QUITE AS WELL STRUCTURED...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

PAUL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THAT
TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING ON
THIS CYCLE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE...
AND THE PEAK INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE ICON
CONSENSUS. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND PAUL IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH
THE ADDED EFFECT OF COOLER SSTS...PAUL COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

PAUL IS ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE PAUL
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.
AFTER THAT TIME...PAUL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS
FLUNG AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

Paul looking mighty intense tonight!

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150854
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Extratropical94]

The 12Z best track is up to 75 knots.
EP, 16, 2012101512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1148W, 75, 983, HU,

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER
HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES
AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80
KT.

PAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
HAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY
DECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48
HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND
THE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.3N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Paul

90 mph (80 knots) 1 min sustained



Tropical Storm Watch
Comodu, Mexico to Bahia Asuncion, Mexico

Tropical Storm Warning
Estero Salada, Mexico to Comodu, Mexico