ATL: SANDY - Models

[Blown Away]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

00z Euro has 99L turn left towards SFL then get kicked ENE, then get bumped into the mid Atlantic.

[brunota2003]

It also has the system making landfall over the Delmarva and pushing NW over Pennsylvania into SWern NY. Frame before landfall, pressure was 954, next frame with the system well inland is 966.

[CrazyC83]

That means I would be on the right side of the storm...

[Caribwxgirl]

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

[artist]

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

here is the link for you to the latest, Caribwxgirl. Hope this thing isn't too severe fro you all there.
Click on storm 99 on the tab -
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[x-y-no]

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

Here's the latest spaghetti model plot:



Since this thing is looking very likely to develop soon, I think Jamaica and eastern Cuba need to be thinking in terms of a possibly fairly strong tropical storm.

[Caribwxgirl]

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

here is the link for you to the latest, Caribwxgirl. Hope this thing isn't too severe fro you all there.
Click on storm 99 on the tab -
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

Here's the latest spaghetti model plot:

http://i.imgur.com/7skMl.gif



Since this thing is looking very likely to develop soon, I think Jamaica and eastern Cuba need to be thinking in terms of a possibly fairly strong tropical storm.

Thanks so much guys. Artist I hope so I really hope so.

[Frank2]

Looking better for FL - probably won't reach the US at all, but time will tell...

[Blown Away]

00z Nogaps, Miami on the west eyewall.

[TCmet]

That means I would be on the right side of the storm...

You along with about 100 million other people.

But really, what has me worried is the relative consistency of the models this far out. On another forum I saw a met that said the Euro and GFS have a 0.81 correlation right now, relatively high for 192 hours out.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS has shifted a little west closer to SFL and stronger than 06Z.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS rolling. It's 96 hour position is west of it's (time adjusted) position in the three previous runs.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS at 114hrs looks like its starting to phase with the trough, the amount of phasing will determine the track and potential intensity or god forbid a landfall in the mid atlantic or NEUS, Im going with out to sea with this but am a little leary of the model concensus

[chaser1]

00z Nogaps, Miami on the west eyewall.

12Nogaps remains consistant with a close brush with S. Florida.

Just looked at the 12Z GFS and did see the westward shift. On one hand I have to agree that I believe it has been the most consistant global model this year. That said however, I am curious if it is over-amplifying the troughs and underestimating the high pressure regions. It continues to be the fasted of all the global models (GFS, EURO, CMC, NOGAPS) and has the storm on the Cuban coast at 60 hours. Conversely, the other models are all slower. Again, not knowing which will be the more accurate, at minimum though I would guess that the longer TD 18 remains in the Caribbean - then the more likely that a more northerly (or even NNW) motion might be impacted upon it at some point.

Would be curious to see where the UK plays in here. Will be especially curious to see if the EURO 12Z run begins to imply a more northward initial motion (rather than NE)

[Evil Jeremy]

12z CMC is west of the previous run. Not a substantial shift, but a shift nonetheless. Shows a stronger ridge and weaker trough than 00z run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[storm4u]

12z ggem would be devastating up here

[Hurricaneman]

The GGEM is probably too robust with the pressure, 970 would probably be more likely not 944, but its not budging from its last few runs, If the Euro shows the same thing like it has the last couple of days then we have to say the GFS is a far right outlier as of now and may shift back to the west bend in later runs

[OuterBanker]

Bad News: Latest CMC is absolutely nuts, 939mb just off NC coast and heading nw. Complete devastation of the mid Atlantic (and the OBX it appears, heads wsw after landfall).

Good news: It’s the CMC. Which is always overdramatic, and never right.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro is running... 48 hours:



Slowly intensifying the storm with a big ridge to the North.

[SouthDadeFish]

At 72 hours it is continuing off to the NNE: