ATL: SANDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#541 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:04 am

hmmm the nam.... the euro had a similar idea the other day about some sort of a vort develop to its west and had made sandy do a hard left.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

very strange though.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#542 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:19 am

seriously sometimes you just have to love the NAM.. lol


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2941
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#543 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:22 am

Aric Dunn wrote:seriously sometimes you just have to love the NAM.. lol


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



The NAM was doing something similar last night.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:
Contact chris_fit

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#544 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:23 am

NAM is doing a loop, just further west and south, than what some of the other models are showing. I think other models do the tiny loop just North of the Bahamas
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2941
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#545 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:33 am

Im not so sure Sandy will turn to the NNW/NW like the models are showing. She still looks to be moving NNE and is nearing 75W.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#546 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:36 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Im not so sure Sandy will turn to the NNW/NW like the models are showing. She still looks to be moving NNE and is nearing 75W.



dont look at the convection....look at the RECON center fixes....
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#547 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:27 am

gfs is rolling in.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#548 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:38 am

hmmm gfs come way left as it near northern bahamas and slows way way down does almost a complete loop. well I guess not that much left but a little from the 6z but about 80 miles sw from the 00z .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#549 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:40 am

GFS has the NNW turn first starting around 21 UTC to 00 UTC.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2941
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#550 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:hmmm gfs come way left as it near northern bahamas and slows way way down does almost a complete loop.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



Yea its quite a bit further southwest of the 6zGFS
0 likes   
Top
MiamiensisWx

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#551 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:44 am

12Z GFS suggests sustained winds of 40-45 kt from Fort Lauderdale northward for ~24 hours between 12Z Friday and 12Z Saturday...ouch. Winds are even near 50 kt near Stuart around 00Z Saturday. The onshore fetch means east-central FL will take most of the severe beach erosion on its chin, whereas SE FL would be less exposed due to NNW (offshore) flow prevailing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4391
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#552 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:07 am

GFS 12z
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal012.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal030.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal042.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#553 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:12 am

gfs is landfall nyc
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4391
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re:

#554 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:13 am

deltadog03 wrote:gfs is landfall nyc



indeed...NASTY
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
MiamiensisWx

Re:

#555 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:15 am

deltadog03 wrote:gfs is landfall nyc

The pressure center actually looks to pass within <5 n mi of Jamaica Bay / JFK...followed by very little movement to near New Haven, CT, within 48 hours afterward (still at <960 mb)...ouch.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#556 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:22 am

Saved images from latest run

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6627
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re:

#557 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:23 am

deltadog03 wrote:gfs is landfall nyc

It has come home to PAPA! It caved to King Euro under its shine. Now to see the exact pressure and details.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 63
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Re:

#558 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:27 am

Cyclenall wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:gfs is landfall nyc

It has come home to PAPA! It caved to King Euro under its shine. Now to see the exact pressure and details.


Actually, landfall Long Island and then northwest into Connecticut. But close enough for government work.
0 likes   
Top
sicktght311
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 11:31 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#559 Postby sicktght311 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:32 am

Wow, unreal that you can see long island straight into the center of that bullseye in the last frame.

I still think we're a few days away from having a more concrete solution, but this is a huge awakening for anyone in the NY metro area. That bullseye is pretty much right over me
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#560 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:47 am

Dr Maue:

"Sandy not going to anything but a full-fledged hurricane until landfall w/GFS & ECMWF. Then it can merge with trough.

Full T574 GFS spectral output (27-km) resolution shows ~930 mb surface pressure for Sandy prior to landfall"

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests