ATL: SANDY - Models
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Dr. Greg Forbes
"Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy continue to be scary and getting more consistently so. Monitor forecasts, emergency manager statements"
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"Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy continue to be scary and getting more consistently so. Monitor forecasts, emergency manager statements"
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
GFS: 06z vs 12z
Significant SW shift.
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euro is running.
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Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
stephen23 wrote:Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?
about 55kts.
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:stephen23 wrote:Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?
about 55kts.
Any west or east shifts in the Euro as Sandy approaches FL/NW Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
70 knots, with two little patches of 80 knot winds. Of course, this is at the 850 mb level.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=048
Compared to yesterday's 12Z run, Euro might be a tad west and slower. Winds are a bit higher for the Florida east coast too.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=048
Compared to yesterday's 12Z run, Euro might be a tad west and slower. Winds are a bit higher for the Florida east coast too.
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Created a GIF to compare yesterday's 12Z and today's run at 12Z Saturday:
http://makeagif.com/i/P3jJ4A
http://makeagif.com/i/P3jJ4A
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:70 knots, with two little patches of 80 knot winds. Of course, this is at the 850 mb level.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=048
Compared to yesterday's 12Z run, Euro might be a tad west and slower. Winds are a bit higher for the Florida east coast too.
yeah it is... it does a complete loop. its moving very slow from tomorrow into saturday.
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Re:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Created a GIF to compare yesterday's 12Z and today's run at 12Z Saturday:
http://makeagif.com/i/P3jJ4A
Much stronger winds for SE Fla on todays 12z run of the Euro
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Oh wow. Look at the size and 932mb heading toward NYC area.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Hey guys... I've been lurking here for a while, but a quick question... Am I seeing this correctly that this latest euro run has Sandy coming in farther south, along the Chesapeake Bay, 96-120 hours out, or am I looking at this completely wrong?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=120
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=120
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
RVAHudson wrote:Hey guys... I've been lurking here for a while, but a quick question... Am I seeing this correctly that this latest euro run has Sandy coming in farther south, along the Chesapeake Bay, 96-120 hours out, or am I looking at this completely wrong?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=120
You are seeing that correctly.
This isn't the usual steering deal. Usually we're used to see systems pushed west by building high pressure to the north.
This time, Sandy will be "pulled" westward by the flow around the negatively-tilted trough over the upper midwest, it's acting like a magnet.
Moreover, the Sandy will have a lot of energy injected into it from that weather system. That baroclinic forcing will make this much larger than a normal tropical system. Winds will be very strong well north of the center. Could be historic.
This isn't without precedent, this has happened a lot of times over the years. It just hasn't happened since the internet has been around, so this a new experience for a lot of weather people.
MW
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
sicktght311 wrote:Wow thats some left hook at 120h. Seems almost TOO exaggerated
The model may not have the correct depiction, but if you look at 500mb with the shape of the trough and the block to the NE the storm has no were to go except WNW.
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In this case (noting the graphic just posted) there will be a strong high well to the north, the flow between that ridge and the inverted trough will create a super-highway in the steering layer, so to speak...and Sandy will be sling-shotted into the US coast.
Interesting the 0Z GFS from overnight missed the connection, but all of the other models since then have not.
MW
Interesting the 0Z GFS from overnight missed the connection, but all of the other models since then have not.
MW
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
xironman wrote:sicktght311 wrote:Wow thats some left hook at 120h. Seems almost TOO exaggerated
The model may not have the correct depiction, but if you look at 500mb with the shape of the trough and the block to the NE the storm has no were to go except WNW.
Absolutely. Theres no doubt that with the setup in place the storm will be drawn westward, i just think the 12Z Euro pulls it a little too drastically west. Not to further doomsday NY/NJ scenarios, but with the forward speed they're talking i just see it hooking left and doing more of a NW hook before it heads more WNW and impacting further north. Chesapeake just seems to drastically right angled for that huge and powerful of a storm
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Well defined warm-core with Sandy prior to landfall at +96 hrs, cold air builds over land.
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2615 ... to/1/large
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2615 ... to/1/large
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