ATL: SANDY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
pricetag56
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:18 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#781 Postby pricetag56 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:38 pm

sweetpea wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds


What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? :double: That can't be right? Is it?

That would be extroadinary, a storm that large with category 4 winds, even at 850mb that would be remarkable if that verified!
0 likes   

User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 784
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Grand Rapids, MI, originally Daytona Beach....back soon

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#782 Postby sweetpea » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:42 pm

stephen23 wrote:That's at 850mb height level. I think it converts to around 90mph surface level but a pro met or someone with more experience would have to convert it more accurate for you.


Thank you, this storm has me scared to death. Have a ton of family up there in NY and NJ. Very worried about what this will do.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9477
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#783 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:45 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds


What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? :double: That can't be right? Is it?

No, that's correct. Its at the 850mb level though, so there would be a reduction involved in calculating surface winds. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but I'm sure someone on here knows.

Using 60%, 120 knots comes out to about 72 knots on the surface. 70% is 84 knots. Not sure if those would be representative, but it gives you an idea. Another issue is that as you go higher in those high rise buildings, the closer to those high winds you get. Look at what Wilma did to the high rises in Miami as an example. Many buildings will lose most, if not all, of their glass in the upper levels...which then poses a falling/flying glass hazard for other buildings and people!
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117577
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#784 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:30 pm

Look how tight consensus are the vast majority of the models on landfall.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 784
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Grand Rapids, MI, originally Daytona Beach....back soon

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#785 Postby sweetpea » Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:34 pm

What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? :double: That can't be right? Is it?[/quote]
No, that's correct. Its at the 850mb level though, so there would be a reduction involved in calculating surface winds. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but I'm sure someone on here knows.[/quote]
Using 60%, 120 knots comes out to about 72 knots on the surface. 70% is 84 knots. Not sure if those would be representative, but it gives you an idea. Another issue is that as you go higher in those high rise buildings, the closer to those high winds you get. Look at what Wilma did to the high rises in Miami as an example. Many buildings will lose most, if not all, of their glass in the upper levels...which then poses a falling/flying glass hazard for other buildings and people![/quote]

Thank you for the info!
0 likes   

Hogweed
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:06 am

#786 Postby Hogweed » Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I note though that the 18z GFS has lowest pressure at 964.1 right now but the latest measured is 951.
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6859
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#787 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:17 pm

WeatherBELL model graphics wide-open for duration of Hurricane

Thanks Dr Maue

http://models.weatherbell.com/
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6859
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#788 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:28 pm

0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#789 Postby HurrMark » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:42 pm

00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.
0 likes   

IntheEye
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:05 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#790 Postby IntheEye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:44 pm

HurrMark wrote:00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.


Has the track shifted or is it about the same place as earlier?
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#791 Postby HurrMark » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:50 pm

IntheEye wrote:
HurrMark wrote:00Z GFS is even quicker with landfall...perhaps 6 PM.


Has the track shifted or is it about the same place as earlier?


About the same...maybe 5 miles south of 12Z. But the speed is greater.
0 likes   

IntheEye
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:05 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#792 Postby IntheEye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:31 am

cycloneye wrote:Look how tight consensus are the vast majority of the models on landfall.

Image


Could someone keep posting the most recent sfwmd model plots as they come out?
I can't figure it out yet
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9566
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#793 Postby artist » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:40 am

Image
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6859
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#794 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:59 am

Off scale helicity forecast this afternoon, NJ to MA

Watch out for tornadoes

http://models.weatherbell.com/rap/20121 ... s_loop.php
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6859
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#795 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:04 am

Latest NCEP Snow-Fall Totals Forecast

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20121 ... _loop6.php
0 likes   

IntheEye
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:05 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#796 Postby IntheEye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:41 am

What do the latest GFS and EURO suggest for landfall location and timing. Let's please keep posting graphics please. I'm not sure where they are found

I think this is important as winds will be significant, especially in a 150 mile radius around Sandy's center...sustained hurricane force. NYC is forecast to be on the northern fringe at the moment. Any more shifts south and the city could be spared from hurricane force sustained winds (not from surge though). Worst case scenario is if Sandy makes landfall farther north (Central NJ coast) as surge AND winds will be even worse
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 15004
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#797 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:50 am

Easiest to use model page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Euro
Image

GFS
Image

CMC
Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9566
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#798 Postby artist » Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:08 am

Image
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
click on storm 18 for latest when new models have been run
0 likes   

IntheEye
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:05 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#799 Postby IntheEye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:09 am

Thanks Mark. So GFS/CMC show central to upper NJ coast landfall and Euro showing Atlantic City landfall. NHC going for extreme southern NJ it looks like.

In response to clipper35's (who shares my confusion) question: "ozone nice map but you have that center of sandy that far north into nj most forcasts are now saying southern new jersey yoy know something that we dont?"

I have said since Thursday evening, given the model output, the center comes ashore between Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook. But landfall anywhere from Atlantic City northward to NYC will be devastating at the coast from central Jersey to most of Long Island. Just does not look very hopeful.
-OzonePete


Exact landfall location is important for cities further north or south like Richmond,VA or Albany,NY which may escape the significant damaging sustained winds or very high gusts (70+)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117577
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#800 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 1:50 pm

Kudos to the models. It has been incredible the precision that the models GFS and ECMWF performed with this system from many days ago with both track and intensity.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests