WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 152.7E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Grifforzer]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 06N 145E WEST SLOWLY

from Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600 AM UTC/1500 PM JST)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It weakened and dissipated but it is organizing again and bad news...

Chances of Development: 90% went down to 60% went up to 95 % went down to 20% but went up to 70%



Some rains over Palau...

[stormstrike]

i don't think this would develop at all...

[dexterlabio]

look at the latest satellite loops. if its center is within the cloud cover near Koror then I think it is starting to develop now. it has good convective banding to its north. i'm giving this until midnight to see if development will continue.

[supercane4867]

No hope for 93W

[stormstrike]

look at the latest satellite loops. if its center is within the cloud cover near Koror then I think it is starting to develop now. it has good convective banding to its north. i'm giving this until midnight to see if development will continue.

i don't think so... convection is still sheared from its center..

[stormstrike]

Meanwhile, models are still keeping their hopes up on developing 93W

[mrbagyo]

convection still a bit sheared to the west,, though it's really trying to stay alive... about to enter some not so nice environment, but who knows if this can pull a surprise,,

[stormstrike]

it's gonna weaken big time...

[dexterlabio]

i don't think so... convection is still sheared from its center..

but i don't think the center is still east of 140E longitude but is already between 135-138E. NRL TC page has the position now at 8N 138.9E. but personally i can't see any evident circulation in there, and i think the CoC is now near Palau. i can be wrong though.

i appreciate the wishcast for it not happen. i also hope this won't develop for the Philippines already had enough from Bopha. though we should always look at every possibilities and monitor from time to time so that when the worst comes, you won't be caught off guard like most people.

[dexterlabio]

actually GFS is the only model indicating development into a TC. CMC and NOGAPS are now showing it as a tropical disturbance crossing Mindanao. GFS has performed well this year. The question is, is it still doing well at this time?

[euro6208]

big burst of convection over palau...this is the most organized it's been throughout its life...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

big burst of convection over palau...this is the most organized it's been throughout its life...

I agree. Wind shear in parts of the Philippines (not directly hit by Bopha, Central Visayas) is decreasing.
Wind shear in Central & Parts of Mindanao is increasing. Its shape looks like Washi in 2011....

[dexterlabio]

that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,

[Meow]

that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,

64.8 km/h sustained eastward winds were observed in Korror, Palau. It means that 93W’s LLCC is located south of Palau, and 93W has tropical storm-force winds.

[euro6208]

that burst of convection gives me the confirmation that the center of circulation is already near Palau. If that one is indeed a central dense overcast and the banding to its north would be maintained, i think this has a chance to be named. i just want to see if this development would be maintained or else it will remain as a disorganized mess,

64.8 km/h sustained eastward winds were observed in Korror, Palau. It means that 93W’s LLCC is located south of Palau, and 93W has tropical storm-force winds.

Link ???

[Grifforzer]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 139E WEST 10 KT.

Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200 PM UTC/2100 PM JST)

[supercane4867]

Convection is being removed from the center due to strong shear, 93W is done unless it can form another LLCC at where the deep convetion is

[Meow]

This tropical depression may become TS Wukong within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 24 December 2012

<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°50'(7.8°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°50'(8.8°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)