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20130722.1445.98LINVEST.20kts-1010mb-127N-171W
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Gustywind wrote:Hurricane Season
Tropical Update
Greg Postel, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel
July 21, 2013 1:35 pm ET
- A strong tropical wave with lots of thunderstorms is moving across the eastern Atlantic
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Eastern Atlantic
A westward moving tropical wave is now moving offshore the African Coast. At first glance, this thunderstorm-filled feature looks pretty ominous. There is a broad counterclockwise spin to the winds near the ocean surface already in place underneath the wave, thanks to a strip of low pressure in the region called a "monsoon trough". And, there is some suggestion that the local atmosphere could favor development during the next couple of days, as a region of gently ascending air moves overhead.
But, and this is one of the keys the system's future, a large swath of bone-dry air will follow the wave's progression across the Atlantic for days to come. This layer of air, most identifiable between about 5,000 and 15,000 feet above the surface, will strongly work against development as it dries out thunderstorms that dare to withstand its onslaught.
As you may know by now, recent runs of the false-alarm infected GFS model strengthened this wave into a strongly rotating tropical cyclone over the middle of the Atlantic. In a dramatic turn of events, perhaps not surprisingly, the latest GFS forecast backed off completely from that solution ... and now instead keeps it as just a tropical wave.
With little support for development from the other models, and in light of the well-known GFS bias (to create phantom storms), I would place the prospects for formation in the "very low" category. But let's keep an eye on it in case something arises, if for no other reason than everyone else will be watching it too.
cycloneye wrote:This is simple,if 98L stays south of 15N it can get better conditions and develop but if it goes north of 15N nothing will happen.
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cycloneye wrote:Discussion of 98L by Dr Jeff Masters.
A strong and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Monday, and has been designated 98L by NHC. This disturbance is headed west at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and will likely interfere with development. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range through Thursday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Friday and Saturday. Ocean temperature are warm off the coast of Africa (27 - 28°C,), but will cool to 25 - 26°C on Tuesday through Thursday, a temperature that is quite marginal for development. None of the computer models predict that 98L will develop, not even the usually aggressive Canadian (CMC) model. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. 98L should maintain a west to west-northwest track through the week, and may bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Saturday night.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
cycloneye wrote:You don't get such a vigorous tropical wave along the African coast on July 22nd in a normal hurricane season. This is a good sign of a active Cape Verde season come August regardless of how much this develops if it does.
cycloneye wrote:You don't get such a vigorous tropical wave along the African coast on July 22nd in a normal hurricane season. This is a good sign of a active Cape Verde season come August regardless of how much this develops if it does.
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