ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Meanwhile pressure and buoy at this one maybe 80-100 miles to the SE.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[wxman57]

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

Such winds are not uncommon near thunderstorms out in the Gulf. Typically, winds are about twice as strong as would be observed over land.

[HurriGuy]

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

Such winds are not uncommon near thunderstorms out in the Gulf. Typically, winds are about twice as strong as would be observed over land.

Is this front supposed to lift back up?

[Dean4Storms]

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

Such winds are not uncommon near thunderstorms out in the Gulf. Typically, winds are about twice as strong as would be observed over land.

Very true wxman57, I've experienced that first hand.

[Ntxw]

Very stretched out for sure. With stuff like this us Atlantic folks have forgotten what a decent storm looks like, with eye feature and all .

Latest Satellite view

[wxman57]

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

Such winds are not uncommon near thunderstorms out in the Gulf. Typically, winds are about twice as strong as would be observed over land.

Very true wxman57, I've experienced that first hand.

Me too, on the "Interocean II", a jackup rig off the southern tip of South America back in 1980.

[HurriGuy]

Any guesses at NHC percentages coming up? I would think they bring it down to max 30% 5 days.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Any guesses at NHC percentages coming up? I would think they bring it down to max 30% 5 days.

More like 10%

[cycloneye]

30%-30%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND LESS
DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...DEVELOPMENT IS LESS LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Stormcenter]

So now base on 2pm TWO it's now supposed to move NW to WNW and not W to WNW.

[perk]

So now base on 2pm TWO it's now supposed to move NW to WNW and not W to WNW.

Lets hope some rain comes our way.

[Bailey1777]

question with the llc being stretched can thunderstorms around the ---center--- tighten it back up or is it toast? also with high pressures in the area does that put the lid on possible llc reformations?

[Nikki]

Any guesses at NHC percentages coming up? I would think they bring it down to max 30% 5 days.

Very good call HurriGuy I wasn't sure where they would take it, but I knew it wasn't going to be a real fast drop!

[HurriGuy]

Any guesses at NHC percentages coming up? I would think they bring it down to max 30% 5 days.

Very good call HurriGuy I wasn't sure where they would take it, but I knew it wasn't going to be a real fast drop!

Thank you Nicole....while I dont agree with 30%. Thing should just be 0%.

[Nikki]

Any guesses at NHC percentages coming up? I would think they bring it down to max 30% 5 days.

Very good call HurriGuy I wasn't sure where they would take it, but I knew it wasn't going to be a real fast drop!

Thank you Nicole....while I dont agree with 30%. Thing should just be 0%.

Maybe it should be 0% but on the "off chance" it tries to develop or does develop they have to be covered so I understand why they go so slow with dropping a system...

[MGC]

Text book example of how a ULL can wreck a developing TC. Still a small window of opportunity.....I thought the cutoff ULL would have moved by now, stopping the dry air from Texas. Yes, Texas is partly to thank for 92L not getting going....MGC

[GCANE]

Hot tower firing

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

[GCANE]

Looking at 200mb vorticity, ULL is just about dead.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Should see some interesting changes in the next 12hrs.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is three hot towers firing since 1445 Z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

Two significant ones.

One to the NE of the COC and the other to the SW

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 171315.jpg

[GCANE]

At least one of the hot towers confirmed on the low-res rain rate Metop-A imager, 26N 89.5W, 1522Z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.67pc.jpg