ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

Text book example of how a ULL can wreck a developing TC. Still a small window of opportunity.....I thought the cutoff ULL would have moved by now, stopping the dry air from Texas. Yes, Texas is partly to thank for 92L not getting going....MGC

Oh yeah blame it on Texas.... whatver...

[HurriGuy]

Has this moved in 2 days?

['CaneFreak]

IF this area can break off from the trough over the next few days, it COULD develop. Any development would be slow until then though.

At least one of the hot towers confirmed on the low-res rain rate Metop-A imager, 26N 89.5W, 1522Z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.67pc.jpg

[perk]

Text book example of how a ULL can wreck a developing TC. Still a small window of opportunity.....I thought the cutoff ULL would have moved by now, stopping the dry air from Texas. Yes, Texas is partly to thank for 92L not getting going....MGC

Oh yeah blame it on Texas.... whatver...

At least we know how MGC feels about the great state of Texas.

[perk]

Has this moved in 2 days?

Not much if at all.

[ninel conde]

the BOC is the only place in the basin marginally favorable for development. most likely a weak TS will be hitting mexico in a few days.

[Stormcenter]

Whatever is in the GOM still has potential and it's not going anywhere fast. IMO

[ozonepete]

Looking at 200mb vorticity, ULL is just about dead.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Should see some interesting changes in the next 12hrs.

GCANE you are correct as usual. The 200 and 250mb vorticity and wind charts show no circulation at all. What you see on the water vapor loop is not the ULL from yesterday. That's a mid level feature left over from yesterday's 500mb vorticity - it's a thin wafer of spinning moist air that's spinning down rapidly. But it doesn't matter. IMHO this is a dead duck. I just can't see it redeveloping. The vorticity remains very stretched, most likely due to the very strong winds from the surface all the way up past 500mb on the east side of this system while winds on the west side of it are northerly but pretty light. So it's behaving more like a front. You can't get any spin at the mid-levels. I just can't see anything coming of this.

[ninel conde]

Looking at 200mb vorticity, ULL is just about dead.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Should see some interesting changes in the next 12hrs.

GCANE you are correct as usual. The 200 and 250mb vorticity and wind charts show no circulation at all. What you see on the water vapor loop is not the ULL from yesterday. That's a mid level feature left over from yesterday's 500mb vorticity - it's a thin wafer of spinning moist air that's spinning down rapidly. But it doesn't matter. IMHO this is a dead duck. I just can't see it redeveloping. The vorticity remains very stretched, most likely due to the very strong winds from the surface all the way up past 500mb on the east side of this system while winds on the west side of it are northerly but pretty light. So it's behaving more like a front. You can't get any spin at the mid-levels. I just can't see anything coming of this.

i still think the southern end has a chance. its hard for anything to develop in the GOM of importance when a trof is dominating the east coast. that pretty much guarantees a stretched messy gyre.

['CaneFreak]

Totally agree. I expect chances of formation from NHC to continue to drop slowly. Definitely behaving more like a front.

GCANE you are correct as usual. The 200 and 250mb vorticity and wind charts show no circulation at all. What you see on the water vapor loop is not the ULL from yesterday. That's a mid level feature left over from yesterday's 500mb vorticity - it's a thin wafer of spinning moist air that's spinning down rapidly. But it doesn't matter. IMHO this is a dead duck. I just can't see it redeveloping. The vorticity remains very stretched, most likely due to the very strong winds from the surface all the way up past 500mb on the east side of this system while winds on the west side of it are northerly but pretty light. So it's behaving more like a front. You can't get any spin at the mid-levels. I just can't see anything coming of this.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081718, , BEST, 0, 208N, 932W, 25, 1010, LO

[Steve]

This post is not official etc.

Here's the deal. We knew last Sunday this was most likely a western Gulf "low" based on the teleconnection with typhoon utor. While not 100%, tracks in the WPAC in August, September and early October do usually give us important clues. When utor decided to move into china that far south, you knew there would be ridging in the SE US at least a few days later. You can see that now by watching a w Atlantic satellite loop and see the push off the SE us coast from the east and southeast.. Interestingly enough, TD's 12w and 13w are showing more ridging from the sw Atlantic for the next week or so. This could matter with the circulation out front of Erin that came off Africa amidst all that dry air. It's east of the islands and probably the next thing to watch when it gets past 70W. I'm not calling for anything to necessarily develop out of it, but there should be at least an opportunity for something to crank off Florida or the Bahamas. We also knew that there was likely going to be at least a tropical surge into the Florida panhandle because we knew a trough would set up in the northern gulf. Incidentally, It appears the trough has come about as far east as it is going to. Either it should lift out in a day or two, back west, or most likely split a piece off west of 92l. Some models had it setting up farther east. It not having done so is BAD news for the southeastern US and potentially signals that the SE US will be open for the 3 or so shots I'm expecting between MS and NC this season.

It's tough to say what else 92L might do at this point. NAM simulated radar still wants to wrap up low pressure (if not necessarily completely at the surface) as it moves into s/sc Texas. Canadian spins up a low right off the la coast. Nothing else really does a whole lot with it, but tropical rainfall should be expected to funnel into the gulf coast. If the trough backs west a little, the tropical surge (with training effects) will move increasingly further west as well. A disorganized system where 92l is will have the tendency to pump tons of moisture into the northern gulf. We saw that today in nw fl. Not saying everything that blows up will make it all the way to the coast, but there is a setup in place for localized flooding. If you are anywhere between cape San blas and Galveston, you should keep up with our local weather over the next few days for potential flooding. Word.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

I was thanking Texas for send all that hot dry air y'all are famous for down there to help hold 92L down. Ha, only gripe I have about Texas is that it takes alllllll day to drive across. Does look like a bit of convection is firing near the circulation....so maybe Fred ain't dead just yet....MGC

[GCANE]

Looking at 200mb vorticity, ULL is just about dead.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Should see some interesting changes in the next 12hrs.

GCANE you are correct as usual. The 200 and 250mb vorticity and wind charts show no circulation at all. What you see on the water vapor loop is not the ULL from yesterday. That's a mid level feature left over from yesterday's 500mb vorticity - it's a thin wafer of spinning moist air that's spinning down rapidly. But it doesn't matter. IMHO this is a dead duck. I just can't see it redeveloping. The vorticity remains very stretched, most likely due to the very strong winds from the surface all the way up past 500mb on the east side of this system while winds on the west side of it are northerly but pretty light. So it's behaving more like a front. You can't get any spin at the mid-levels. I just can't see anything coming of this.

Much thanks OP. As always, your insights are much appreciated.

Agreed about the stretched 850 to 750 mb vorticity.

Given the hot towers firing for an extended period of time, I am going to wait till after DMAX tomorrow morning to see for sure.

Latest SCAT is not too bad with what looks like a surface COC at 19.5N 93.5W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SCAT.GIF

I just checked CAPE in the GOM and its max'ing at 8500 albeit pretty far removed from the system though.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 6768431649

[HurriGuy]

I hope something positive happens with the trough soon. FL/AL look miserable. Keep thinking radar is broken. Same picture all day.

[Pearl River]

It could be an optical illusion, but there appears to be a weak circulation around SE LA according to radar. You notice the stream from SW to NE along the trough, but the smaller storms appear to have a weak circulation from E to SW. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes. Could this be whatt the CMC is attempting to sniff out?

[vbhoutex]

It could be an optical illusion, but there appears to be a weak circulation around SE LA according to radar. You notice the stream from SW to NE along the trough, but the smaller storms appear to have a weak circulation from E to SW. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes. Could this be whatt the CMC is attempting to sniff out?

I see what you are looking at/talking about, but I wouldn't classify it as a circulation or even the start of one.

[Steve]

Could be pearl. RAP valid 19z shows vorticity moving up into southern MS and SW AL over the next 18 hours. Not sure it's really at the surface, but it's going to pump in moisture.

[HurriGuy]

So are there any circulations left? Upper or middle? I can't tell on any of the satellite loops.

[stormy70]

I have pictures along the Eastern Shore in Alabama showing the clouds and rain along Mobile Bay. We were looking for a Jubilee but never found it. It was in Montrose. But the clouds along the bay shows the weather this system is kicking up toward us. Rain all day.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/tp9x.jpg/