WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

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WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:51 pm

Image
20kts - 1006mb - 25.2N 122.9E
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:46 am

JTWC Issues Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 010930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.4N 123.1E TO 28.1N 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.7N 123.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.2N
122.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PREDOMINATELY SHALLOW, BUT
IMPROVING, CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EDGE OF A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A 010623Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER
REVEALS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEVELOPING
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN AND ISHIGAKIJIMA INDICATE A 18 TO 23 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION DIAGRAM INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER-TROPOSPHERE COLD
ANOMALY, WHILE THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM HINTS TOWARD A HYBRID
OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A NARROW AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020930Z.
//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:32 am

Feel this could be a troublemaker for Japan as an extratropical system. GFS going for a whopping 106kts at 925hPa level in the Sea of Japan. Needs to be watched careful. It's already brought mayhem to Taiwan with the totally insane rock slide footage. A good friend of mine was driving along that road and within 30 seconds of being wiped out by that boulder, no-one was killed, extremely lucky all round!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wWuH7MIeCA
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:37 am

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PREDOMINATELY
SHALLOW, BUT IMPROVING, CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EDGE OF A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A 011230Z TRMM MICROWAVE
IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
SEVERAL WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIYAKOJIMA/YAEYAMA, JAPAN
INDICATES A 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVING CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS
FROM 01/12Z ALSO INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR
1004 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE
ABOVE RADAR AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS 25 KNOT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE AMSU RADIAL CROSS
SECTION DIAGRAM INDICATES AN IMPROVED WARM LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AS WELL AS A COLD UPPER-TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY, WHILE THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM CONTINUES TO HINT
TOWARD A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
PASSING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48
THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER AN AREA OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING AND
TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW. AFTER TAU 48 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND TD 15W WILL TURN MORE
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY OF TD
15W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP IN THE COMING
TAUS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF FORECAST TRACK IS LOW UNTIL THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN AND TRACK
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ON THE STR. BY TAU 96, TD
15W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHICH WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120 AS IT WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE.
UNCERTAINITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND DUE TO
VARYING INTERPRETATIONS TO THE STR BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REBUILDING STR.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:38 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Feel this could be a troublemaker for Japan as an extratropical system. GFS going for a whopping 106kts at 925hPa level in the Sea of Japan. Needs to be watched careful. It's already brought mayhem to Taiwan with the totally insane rock slide footage. A good friend of mine was driving along that road and within 30 seconds of being wiped out by that boulder, no-one was killed, extremely lucky all round!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wWuH7MIeCA


that's really scary!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 11:09 am

20130901 1501 25.8 -124.3 T1.0/1.0 15W NONAME
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#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:35 pm

This is now Tropical Storm Toraji (1317).

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1317 TORAJI (1317) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 26.3N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 28.0N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 031800UTC 29.0N 127.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 041800UTC 29.6N 127.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:43 pm

Gale warnings now in effect and Storm Watch Issued for US Military in the southern Japanese islands. Plus in western Kyushu over 1,200 homes have been evacuated this morning due to heavy rainfall along the northenr periphery of the storm combined with a stalled out front. That will be this storms main impact I think, the floods in western Japan.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWevmFZgm3U[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:16 am

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TORAJI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPENING CONVECTION THAT HAS STARTED TO WRAP AROUND
THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA, JAPAN, SHOWS A GOOD
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AS CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, THE
RADAR IMAGERY AND A 012344Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM RJTD AND
THE IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE RADAR LOOP ALONG WITH THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PASSING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER AN
AREA OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING AND TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW AS
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS KYUSHU. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS, TS 15W WILL TURN MORE
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BUILDING STR. THE
INTENSITY OF TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 36
TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS FROM THE TROUGH AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL START
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ON THE STR. ONCE IT CROSSES THE RIDGE
AXIS NEAR TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 15W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT IS DRIVEN POLEWARD
BY THE BUILDING RIDGE NEAR TAU 72. THIS WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITH COMPLETION BY TAU 96 AS IT WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN
BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, ALTHOUGH AT VARYING TRACK
SPEEDS. AFTER TAU 36, UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES AS A
BIFURCATION REMAINS IN THE GUIDANCE. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING IN MUCH STRONGER WHICH IS GREATLY
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND DRIVING THE WEAKENED VORTEX NORTHWEST IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. GFS, COAMPS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, HOWEVER,
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD THE
TROUGH AND DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REBUILDING STR AND BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:34 am

Image

rainbands affecting the southern japanese islands...


WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TORAJI) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. A 021232Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SYSTEM WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS WELL AS A
STRONG BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA, JAPAN, SHOWS A WELL SUSTAINED STRUCTURE
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO TIGHTLY
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP,
THE RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 15W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
AN AREA OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING AND TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ACROSS KYUSHU. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, TS 15W WILL TURN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY OF TS
15W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 45
KTS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS FROM THE PASSING TROUGH AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TORAJI IS FORECAST TO FIRST BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT IS DRIVEN POLEWARD
BY THE STR NEAR TAU 72. THIS INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SEA OF JAPAN ONCE TORAJI CROSSES THE RIDGE
AXIS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 96
AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24, ALTHOUGH AT VARYING TRACK SPEEDS. AFTER THE DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AS MANY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO MEANDER
ABOUT DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IN THE AREA.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE STR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE INDICATE A
STRONG STR, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND DRIVES THE
WEAKENED VORTEX NORTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. GFS, HWRF, AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD THE TROUGH AND DO NOT BUILD THE RIDGE IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK STEERING MECHANISM AND THE REBUILDING STR
IN THE MODELS.//
NNNN
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#12 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 02, 2013 4:42 pm

Tropical Storm Toraji

Image
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#13 Postby vrif » Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:29 am

Toraji got upgraded to a STS in a previous bulletin.
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Re:

#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:42 am

vrif wrote:Toraji got upgraded to a STS in a previous bulletin.


You're right.


WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1317 TORAJI (1317)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 29.2N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 75NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 30.6N 130.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050600UTC 31.0N 130.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 060600UTC 33.8N 131.2E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:54 pm

Image

latest
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#16 Postby vrif » Tue Sep 03, 2013 11:41 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1317 TORAJI (1317)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 33N 133E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 200NM =
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#17 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:38 am

Another Tornado Spawned from this and the front its merging with, that is two for this week.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... %E6%9C%AC/
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:39 am

My analysis on whats going on out here.

Image

No injuries reported from Wednesdays Tornado, over 60 were hospitalized on Monday in Saitama after that one blew through damaging 600 buildings.
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#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:07 am

Four injuries now reported as a result of the Tornado, over 1500 homes across Japan have been evacuated due to the threat of landslides and flooding from Toraji and over 500mm has been reported in Kochi Pref. in the past 24hrs...

Yap, crazy stuff.
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Re: WPAC: TORAJI - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:12 am

Sakurajima eruption was also seen on floater.
Image

Edit (06/09/2013): Floater is now avaiable for Sakurajima at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html
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