ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#101 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The BT will likely have it as a tropical cyclone much earlier though, probably 0600Z or earlier.


You think maybe a TS?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#102 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:48 pm

ROCK wrote:I could sure use the NHC naming this albeit just for a few hours. I need to at least pad my preseason numbers some. I have been taking a beating on my 19/8/4 with a ACE of 125 this year.... :lol:


You think you have it bad, I predicted 21 named storms this year. :oops: :lol: Anyway, I wonder if we get a post-season upgrade if some reports of ts force winds are later documented.
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#103 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:51 pm

If this system could stay just offshore until the 5pm advisory it might could be upgraded to a TS...but NHC says it's moving inland now. :(



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Re: Re:

#104 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The BT will likely have it as a tropical cyclone much earlier though, probably 0600Z or earlier.


You think maybe a TS?


There would have to be some observation of TS wind. That won't happen at Tampico, most likely, and it's not near any buoys or ships. No ASCAT ob yet today. If the descending ASCAT pass hits the western Gulf and there are indications of 34kt wind then it could get an upgrade. If not, then no post-season upgrade.
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#105 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:57 pm

That was a quick ramp-up from this morning! There's just something about systems that only manage to get to TD status and remain that way there whole life. :x Probably just my OCD. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#106 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The BT will likely have it as a tropical cyclone much earlier though, probably 0600Z or earlier.


You think maybe a TS?


There would have to be some observation of TS wind. That won't happen at Tampico, most likely, and it's not near any buoys or ships. No ASCAT ob yet today. If the descending ASCAT pass hits the western Gulf and there are indications of 34kt wind then it could get an upgrade. If not, then no post-season upgrade.

Knowing that it will most likely be the shortest lived TC this season I'd rather it just remain a TD.
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Re: Re:

#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
There would have to be some observation of TS wind. That won't happen at Tampico, most likely, and it's not near any buoys or ships. No ASCAT ob yet today. If the descending ASCAT pass hits the western Gulf and there are indications of 34kt wind then it could get an upgrade. If not, then no post-season upgrade.

Knowing that it will most likely be the shortest lived TC this season I'd rather it just remain a TD.


I agree, something conclusive is necessary - an ASCAT pass would be the most likely reason for an upgrade if conclusive 34 kt winds are found. No surface obs exist supporting such.

If a post-season upgrade is made, it would not get named though. A pressure of 1009 or so is awfully high for a tropical storm as well...
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#108 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:17 pm

well someone needs to go out there in a john boat with a barometor and anemometer and get this named.. :lol: .Tampico gets hammered every other year. I wonder why we dont stick a buoy out there...sheesh...
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#109 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:58 pm

Highest I see is 30 kt.

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#110 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL IN THE TAMPICO MEXICO
AREA AROUND 1800 UTC. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS FROM THE MEXICAN COASTAL STATIONS...TAMPICO
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF NEAR 1009 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT SINCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL OVER WATER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL
IT DISSIPATES COMPLETELY IN 24-36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/5. A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.2N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 07/0600Z 21.9N 98.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#111 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:39 pm

ah, man it didnt make it!!! at least we got .0000001 added to the ACE. :D
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#112 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:54 pm

ROCK wrote:ah, man it didnt make it!!! at least we got .0000001 added to the ACE. :D


Guess what ROCK,TD's don't count for ACE units. :)
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#113 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ROCK wrote:ah, man it didnt make it!!! at least we got .0000001 added to the ACE. :D


Guess what ROCK,TD's don't count for ACE units. :)



thats just wonderful...
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#114 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:05 pm

Could someone please post a visible picture between 12:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC of this depression while it was at its peak? I was not at home, so I didn't see the depression at its maximum strength. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#115 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:03 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Could someone please post a visible picture between 12:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC of this depression while it was at its peak? I was not at home, so I didn't see the depression at its maximum strength. Thanks.


Image
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#116 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:52 pm

I'm thinking it became a TD at 0600Z or so based on satellite imagery, probably 25 kt then and 30 kt at 1200Z and 1800Z (landfall). No evidence at all it became a TS.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#117 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 24 HOURS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 240/07. A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS AND SAN
LUIS POTOSI...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 21.7N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 21.2N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#118 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:35 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12
HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS AND SAN LUIS POTOSI...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 21.4N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/1800Z 21.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Some humor

#119 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:24 pm

Image

When this became a TD for the first time, I went to its floater page and this came up. Its probably one of the funniest glitches because its wrong plus 99L becoming 99L? Here's the good part though, after 5 seconds it would keep looping back to this page and it would never stop :lol: .

About TD8, I don't think the NHC should have called this IMO. It was 20% that morning and then a TD by 2:00 pm?
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