WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:10 am

12.5N-152.0E SE of Guam.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:22 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING
A 142005Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. HOWEVER, A 150012Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A
150222Z OCEANSAT IMAGE CONFIRM A DEFINED BUT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL, WHICH IS PRODUCING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS FUELING A
PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LLCC. AS A
RESULT OF THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND WEAK LLCC, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:34 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
149.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152007Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND BECOME BROAD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Meow

#4 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:51 pm

Image

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 151E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:36 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAK, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 152350Z METOP-
A IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 160132Z OCEANSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG, BROAD TUTT CELL WITH
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS FUELING
LARGE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PERIPHERIES
OF THE TUTT CELL. DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, MODEL DEVELOMENT IS
SLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:10 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
150.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST
OF GUAM. EIR DEPICTS A WEAK, ELONGATED LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED
WEAKENING CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A STRONG, BROAD TUTT CELL WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
INCLUDING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE IS FUELING LARGE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EAST AND SOUTH PERIPHERIES OF THE TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:29 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. MSI DEPICTS A VERY BROAD LLCC THAT IS DEVOID
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. A 170222Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK (05-10
KNOT) WINDS AT THE CENTER WHILE WINDS IN THE PERIPHERIES RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM
THE TUTT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:28 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 148.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A 180514Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE VERY
BROAD NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM THAT IS DEVOID OF CENTRAL CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF TROUGHING WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:36 pm

461
WWMY80 PGUM 182323 CCA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
923 AM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

GUZ001>004-190900-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
923 AM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

CORRECTED ZONE NAMES

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE MARIANAS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MARIANAS...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR
14 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH
LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS GUAM
AND ROTA AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO FOR GUAM AND
ROTA COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 8 TO 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS
TINIAN AND SAIPAN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND MOVES.

SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNING FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:41 pm

a very wet windy and rainy day right now...wind gust in showers in the 30's and lowering pressure...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.1N 148.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A WEAKER
LLCC WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BROAD AND
ELONGATED, LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPES A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Meow

#11 Postby Meow » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:58 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:14 am

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20130919/NEWS01/130919002/Guam-under-flash-flood-warning?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|Frontpage

Guam under flash flood warning

some areas receiving 30 inches and more expected...

737
WGMY50 PGUM 190310
FFWMY
GUC010-190900-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0001.130919T0310Z-130919T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
110 PM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF GUAM

* UNTIL 700 PM CHST

* AT 102 PM CHST...LOCAL CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YIGO...
TAMUNING...FINEGAYAN STATION...TIYAN...DEDEDO...MARBO ANNEX AND
ANDERSEN AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 1341 14496 1327 14488 1318 14479 1321 14455
1355 14463 1369 14485 1367 14501

$$

STANKO
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Meow

#13 Postby Meow » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:40 am

It may be a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Image

TD
Issued at 07:30 UTC, 19 September 2013

<Analyses at 19/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°00'(14.0°)
E148°30'(148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 20/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E147°50'(147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:02 am

855
WWMY80 PGUM 190952
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
752 PM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

GUZ001>004-192300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
752 PM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 15 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE AND 148 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ON GUAM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. OFFSHORE SEAS OF
10 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT.

THIS SYSTEM STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:03 am

674
WGMY50 PGUM 190845
FFWMY
GUC010-191500-
/O.EXT.PGUM.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130919T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.IO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 PM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF GUAM

* UNTIL 100 AM CHST FRIDAY

* AT 625 PM CHST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALL OF GUAM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO APRA
HARBOR...YIGO...TAMUNING...FINEGAYAN STATION...BARRIGADA...CHALAN
PAGO...MANGILAO...MONGMONG...ORDOT...TIYAN...TOTO...DEDEDO...MARBO
ANNEX...ANDERSEN AFB...AGANA HEIGHTS AND SINAJANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TIYAN
GUAM.

&&

LAT...LON 1341 14496 1327 14488 1318 14479 1321 14455
1355 14463 1369 14485 1367 14501

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#16 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:03 am

TD east of Vietnam busted from becoming the next named TS.....now we have this, though all eyes are on Usagi. :lol: I wonder if this will also be a big player in WPAC..
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:03 am

Image

looks like an intense meso embedded located just west of guam producing winds up to 50 knots...


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
190336Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 190222Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES
CORE WINDS OF ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP TROUGH NEAR 160E LONGITUDE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND BASED ON THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:17 pm

Image


WTPN21 PGTW 191700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 148.8E TO 22.0N 146.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191432Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING.
A 191136Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES
BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT HAVE NOT YET FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE
LLCC. THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATES WEAKER WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS CLOSING OFF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201700Z.
//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:20 pm

00z Best Track.

98W INVEST 130920 0000 15.5N 147.5E WPAC 25 1000
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:31 pm

had work canceled yesterday and now today because of the severity of the rain and strong winds which are causing flooding throughout guam...a record was set yesterday when 7 inches fell in 24 hours and now way more is expected today through tomorrow...


http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Avis=M0&Dato=20130919&Kategori=NEWS01&Lopenr=309190802&Ref=PH

some pictures of the flooding...


Image

Image

Andersen Air Force Base

20 13:58 N 14 10.00 Light Rain SCT009 81 79 94% NA 89 29.53 995.8 0.07

Guam International Airport

20 14:30 SW 9 0.25 Heavy Rain Fog FEW005 OVC020 79 77 94% NA 83 29.53 NA
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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