ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%/50%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N41W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
SURROUNDS THE LOW FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 28W-46W WITH A RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM INDICATED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB LEVEL
NEAR 12N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N
BETWEEN 35W-47W. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HOWEVER WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
OVER THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 10 KT.

[wxman57]

It's missed its opportunity to develop.

[hurricanes1234]

It's missed its opportunity to develop.

Looked a lot better last night. Now convection is warming and wind shear taking it over.

[HurricaneDREW92]

It's missed its opportunity to develop.

Looked a lot better last night. Now convection is warming and wind shear taking it over.

New convection is popping at the center.

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

[emeraldislenc]

It is really looking like less of a chance to develop!!

[Gustywind]

98 L recap...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 10.4N 42.5W TOO WEAK 98L
12/0600 UTC 10.2N 41.3W T1.5/1.5 98L
11/2345 UTC 10.7N 40.0W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1745 UTC 10.9N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1145 UTC 11.3N 36.7W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/0545 UTC 10.5N 37.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
10/1745 UTC 10.5N 33.7W TOO WEAK 98L
10/1145 UTC 10.9N 32.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
09/1200 UTC 10.8N 27.7W TOO WEAK 98L
09/0545 UTC 10.4N 28.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N42W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STEADILY
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-14N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

[floridasun78]

Gustywind are you going get rain from tropical wave?

[Gustywind]

Gustywind are you going get rain from tropical wave?

Not sure and given our Pro Mets and their latest weather forecast any rain should not came before Friday even Saturday as there no mention of an imminent arrival of this twave for the next 72h or even 96H. So, let's wait and see.

[gatorcane]

NHC Marine graphic (top image) and 72 hour surface forecast (bottom image):

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG

[HurricaneDREW92]

NECN Met Tim Kelly says he thinks it stays alive, TS west of 70W and turns into the carolinas north to Pennsylvania peak intensity being high end ts - low end cat 1

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Sanibel]

NECN Met Tim Kelly says he thinks it stays alive, TS west of 70W and turns into the carolinas north to Pennsylvania peak intensity being high end ts - low end cat 1

There appears to be some weak spin still there imo.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 485W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[HURAKAN]

NECN Met Tim Kelly says he thinks it stays alive, TS west of 70W and turns into the carolinas north to Pennsylvania peak intensity being high end ts - low end cat 1

that's very specific, long-term forecast

[HurricaneDREW92]

NECN Met Tim Kelly says he thinks it stays alive, TS west of 70W and turns into the carolinas north to Pennsylvania peak intensity being high end ts - low end cat 1

There appears to be some weak spin still there imo.