ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

NECN Met Tim Kelly says he thinks it stays alive, TS west of 70W and turns into the carolinas north to Pennsylvania peak intensity being high end ts - low end cat 1

that's very specific, long-term forecast

Very, but he was playing a model along with it to back it up. Perhaps WRF?

[wxman57]

It would have to come alive in order to stay alive. It's dead. No U.S. threat.

[colbroe]

Nice blow up of thunder occurring as we speak.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 491W, 30, 1009, LO,

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N43W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N48W TO 11N53. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

[floridasun78]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 491W, 30, 1009, LO,

were do you get best track from? ty

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 491W, 30, 1009, LO,

were do you get best track from? ty

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[floridasun78]

Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

their got up 10% up for 5 day forecast after drop it 0% now

[cycloneye]

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

In my opinion, 0% is perfectly fine for this area. It was doomed since day one, it's just that it was very fortunate that it briefly found an area of weak shear and warm waters at the same time to organise. It still didn't become a TC, and I don't see any of that happening in the near future. Just looking at it right now, to me, it resembles a cold front, more like a rainmaker than a storm (at least right now). Very high wind shear everywhere.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

In my opinion, 0% is perfectly fine for this area. It was doomed since day one, it's just that it was very fortunate that it briefly found an area of weak shear and warm waters at the same time to organise. It still didn't become a TC, and I don't see any of that happening in the near future. Just looking at it right now, to me, it resembles a cold front, more like a rainmaker than a storm (at least right now). Very high wind shear everywhere.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Humbly disagree as it does look a bit better now and convection is blowing up as well as evident rotation on satellite.

[wxman57]

I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation. Some weak rotation aloft. Moderate to high shear environment and no indication of a favorable upper-air environment in its path. Development still quite unlikely.

[cycloneye]

No more mention of 98L at TWO.

[Gustywind]

No more mention of 98L at TWO.

So Cycloneye, do you think that the islands may not have rain from this one? Looks like chances of rain are becoming slim?!

[cycloneye]

No more mention of 98L at TWO.

So Cycloneye, do you think that the islands may not have rain from this one? Looks like chances of rain are becoming slim?!

Slim to none chance for a big rain event from it in the NE Caribbean islands. As I have been posting at the Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread ,a rain event is expected starting on Wednesday and lasting thru the end of the week as a big trough amplifies in Western Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

No more mention of 98L at TWO.

So Cycloneye, do you think that the islands may not have rain from this one? Looks like chances of rain are becoming slim?!

Slim to none chance for a big rain event from it in the NE Caribbean islands. As I have been posting at the Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread ,a rain event is expected starting on Wednesday and lasting thru the end of the week as a big trough amplifies in Western Atlantic.

Thanks, did not seen that on our tent , so let's wait and see if this come true

[Ntxw]

Stick a fork in this one. Not that it was anything to begin with. Much of the Atlantic is hostile and the changing seasons will just make it worse. The environment is just not going to cooperate in the open Atlantic this year.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310150413
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END