WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

will we make it to 30 storms?

[euro6208]

[ManilaTC]

Counting PAGASA's TD Bising, The three dateline crossers, and TS Yutu... my count stands at 31.

[euro6208]

Let's hope it turns out to sea harmlessly, enough people have been affected by typhoons this year.

not only this year but EVERY year...*It only takes one* doesn't fit well in our area...

Counting PAGASA's TD Bising, The three dateline crossers, and TS Yutu... my count stands at 31.

Well i was talking about 1 minute winds but thanks for letting us know...

[ManilaTC]

Let's hope it turns out to sea harmlessly, enough people have been affected by typhoons this year.

not only this year but EVERY year...*It only takes one* doesn't fit well in our area...

Counting PAGASA's TD Bising, The three dateline crossers, and TS Yutu... my count stands at 31.

Well i was talking about 1 minute winds but thanks for letting us know...

Hehe, thanks...
Your right in saying that it only takes one really doesnt count as we really dont know how active the season gets.

[dexterlabio]

^PAGASA's TD "Bising" was also recognized as a TD by the JMA, so officially it counts as a tropical cyclone this year......JTWC for once issued a TCFA on it so........close call.. I just don't know about Yutu and Pabuk which they should have as a typhoon. (OT)



It seems future 'Francisco' will follow Wipha's path, and some models has a more western track targeting mainland Japan.

[euro6208]

first prog on our 26th TC of the season...

WDPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 152330Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVED CURVED
BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND RADAR FROM GUAM WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND MULTIPLE
CIRCULATIONS MAY BE PRESENT. A 160023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING
THE CENTER, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY, WHICH IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TD 26W IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND CURRENTLY TRACKING WITH THE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRACK SOUTHWEST
WITH THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER
TAU 12, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD-IN STEERING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND EVENTUALLY EVEN MORE POLEWARD IN
A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 48. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VWS ALONG THE TRACK WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD-IN AFTER TAU 48 AND DIRECT TD 26W TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT
TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALLOWING TD 26W TO REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. THOUGH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE GROUPED FAIRLY
TIGHTLY, THE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
INITIALLY LOW DUE TO THE SLIGHT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE GENERALLY WEAK STEERING CONDITIONS.
C. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 120.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE SSTS, LOW VWS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OBJECTIVE AIDS THROUGH
TAU 120, WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND POSITION.
DESPITE THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND THE POORLY
DEFINED STEERING CONDITIONS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very high OHC...

[euro6208]

416
WTPQ83 PGUM 160509 CCA
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
248 PM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

CORRECTED PRODUCT DESIGNATOR

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND THE MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT
SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6N AND LONGITUDE 145.5E. THIS IS ABOUT

75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
105 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
165 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
175 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN.

STORM MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON GUAM AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-161300-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0001.131016T0448Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
248 PM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTS. SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 10 TO
13 FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND MAY BECOME HAZARARDOUS AS HIGH AS 12 FEET ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS AND UP TO 9 FEET ALONG SOUTH FACING REEFS ON
THURSDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



047
WTPQ33 PGUM 160331
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262013
200 PM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.6N 145.5E

ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 PM THIS EVENING.


$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

WEATHER UPDATE: Governor declares COR 3 for island, NWS issues tropical storm watch

Link to GuamPDN...

[stormkite]

There is shear ahead as it heads North see how it plays out next 48 hours.

[ManilaTC]

THE LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING STEERING MECHANISM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

[SouthDadeFish]

Really getting its act together:





Rapid Intensification is a very real possibility at this time.

[SouthDadeFish]

Btw this is way stronger than 30 knots at this time ...

[Extratropical94]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 11.5N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 12.6N 141.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 15.6N 141.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 191200UTC 18.3N 139.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[HURAKAN]

becoming better organized

[euro6208]

Peak intensity has a category 4 typhoon!

WDPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. FORMATIVE BANDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
LONG-RANGE BASE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM NWS GUAM AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 161026Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
AUTOMATED DVORAK DATA AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW OF 30 KNOTS TO REFLECT
THE DEVELOPING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 20
DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING,
WILL RECEDE EASTWARD CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWARD. AFTER TAU
48, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND STEER TS 26W TO A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. DURING THIS PHASE, THE CYCLONE WILL
APPROACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THIS NEW DIVERGENT MECHANISM, IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS DISCUSSED IN PARAGRAPH 2, WILL ENHANCE FURTHER
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. TS FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY EVEN AFTER TAU 72,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU
96. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. //
NNNN

Francisco submitted by the USA meaning Chamorro man's name from the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Really getting its act together:


Rapid Intensification is a very real possibility at this time.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 11:24:18 N Lon : 143:13:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.8mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -39.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.5 degrees

wow!

http://i.imgur.com/fcTDw9H.gif

shear dramatically decreasing and an anticyclone developing...

http://i.imgur.com/ry22c1D.gif

850mb getting more defined...

http://i.imgur.com/kL0UTfD.gif

very moist environment...

[wxman57]

35kt (according to JTWC) Francisco appears to be forming an eye. Probably a good bit stronger than 35 kts, perhaps 50-55 kts by now.



Quite a few 50kt barbs on this 1218Z ASCAT. Could be a typhoon within 3-6 hrs (vs. 36 hrs on current forecast):

[SouthDadeFish]

SSD raw ADT numbers now at T 6.6 lol.....

2013OCT16 150100 3.1 1000.6 47.0 3.1 3.4 6.6 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -30.04 -78.00 EYE -99 IR N/A 11.40 -143.20 FCST MTSAT2 13.5

Get ready for RI!