EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[hurricanes1234]

TCFA issued!

WTPN22 PHNC 191130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 96.6W TO 14.4N 104.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 98.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 97.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 98.4W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STILL SHALLOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201130Z.
// NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Great! Floater is now up!
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96E/96E_floater.html


Here's the first image I got - it shows a much better organised system.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still broad but consolidating nicely. The 0z ECMWF brings this down to 966mb now; a major hurricane. 6z GFS was considerably weaker than the 0z, probably due to land interaction.

[cycloneye]

80% / 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY WHILE THIS
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Another TS.



Peak



9.9 As soon as I think we're gonna get a major.



Comeback

[hurricanes1234]

I think this has potential. I'm getting a different feeling from this compared to previous storms that were forecasted to be strong, but didn't make it (example: TS Juliette).

[supercane4867]

The first runs of HWRF and GFDL pull Raymond right into Mexico, likely because they strengthen it too fast but could be a possible scenario IMO

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

EP, 96, 2013101918, , BEST, 0, 131N, 999W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[cycloneye]

TXPZ25 KNES 191802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 19/1745Z

C. 12.7N

D. 99.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...OVERALL CIRCULATION PRESENTATION IS SHOWING VERY GOOD
SIGNS OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION PER VIS LOOP AND MI SUITE.
HOWEVER BANDING IS LIMITED AND WARM AND DOES NOT REFLECT THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION WITH .25 BANDING FOR DT OF 1.0...WHICH IS REJECTED IN FAVOR
OF MET WHICH IS 1.5 AND PT WHICH IS 1.5 AS WELL. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/1244Z 12.4N 99.3W SSMIS
19/1254Z 12.2N 99.3W WINDSAT


...GALLINA

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like a TD to me. What is the likelihood of this making landfall?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like a TD to me. What is the likelihood of this making landfall?

Depends on how strong it gets. 12z ECMWF makes it a hurricane very quickly and takes it very close to the coastline before a ridge builds in and forces it west.

Convection still isn't very deep or organized. If current trends continue though, I'd expect classification at 3z.

[Yellow Evan]

The first runs of HWRF and GFDL pull Raymond right into Mexico, likely because they strengthen it too fast but could be a possible scenario IMO

It's possible IMO if the trough digs further south than expected.

[hurricanes1234]

So the most likely scenario is that this stays over water, and passes miles off the coast, heading westwards into warm waters and harming no one?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So the most likely scenario is that this stays over water, and passes miles off the coast, heading westwards into warm waters and harming no one?

Too early to tell. GFS sends it towards Baja California Sur in the long range, ECMWF pushes it aimlessly out to sea. It's a complex situation.

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS has it closer to land and much weaker

no

[cycloneye]

Is on the brink to TD or TS.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 13N100W OR A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY WITH SOME BANDING-LIKE FEATURES AND INCREASING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY WHILE
THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

100% / 100%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[hurricanes1234]

What does the latest run show? No longer 966 mbar? By the way, I love the lyrics of that 5 PM TWO.

[Yellow Evan]

So the most likely scenario is that this stays over water, and passes miles off the coast, heading westwards into warm waters and harming no one?

No, this is gonna affect land IMO. Will it make landfall? That's the question IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

So the most likely scenario is that this stays over water, and passes miles off the coast, heading westwards into warm waters and harming no one?

Too early to tell. GFS sends it towards Baja California Sur in the long range, ECMWF pushes it aimlessly out to sea. It's a complex situation.

First peak



Weakling. This run does not show spooky stuff on Halloween unlike the last run. Second GFS storm was after trunction, so it has a tendency to show phantom storms in the EPAC (2 instead of 1).



Peak



Unprecedented track for post-Day of the Dead.