ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:22 pm

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:34 pm

:uarrow: Yeah. Lol. As Mark Twain once said: "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:03 pm

Oh, and thanks Hammy for the great microwaves. :) I didn't even see those first 2. The F-17 at 1018 UTC is really impressive. Can't believe it didn't get mentioned. I would agree that this will get an upgrade in the post season and I also think it's not done yet. Right now it looks to be outrunning the shear, though you can see some elongation of the circulation envelope from SW to NE now. But even with that, it is maintaining a quite impressive convective core that doesn't look to be shearing away from the LLC as of now.
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#64 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:11 pm

Not sure how high to upgrade to in post-analysis. I've seen Recon-confirmed storms of 50 to 60 kt look like that and Recon-confirmed hurricanes look worse. Given all the Dvorak data (using the high end), I would say 55 kt is the most likely peak intensity and 50 kt for current intensity.
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Re:

#65 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure how high to upgrade to in post-analysis. I've seen Recon-confirmed storms of 50 to 60 kt look like that and Recon-confirmed hurricanes look worse. Given all the Dvorak data (using the high end), I would say 55 kt is the most likely peak intensity and 50 kt for current intensity.


Oh yeah, I totally agree. I think they'll give it 55 knots peak in the re-analysis. I'd be satisfied with 50 actually. :wink:
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:47 pm

00z Best Track remains at 45kts.

AL, 13, 2013102300, , BEST, 0, 296N, 505W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 40, 1016, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M
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#67 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:55 pm

Once again (as with late last night) the IR shows that the convection is expanding slightly in the last few frames towards the NW indicating there could be another wrap-around of convection

edit: if that white area is indeed near the center, it appears that the storm is well east of the 2am forecast point and thus the storm relative shear is remaining the same if not decreasing since is pushing it faster instead of ripping it apart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13L/flash-rbtop-long.html
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Re:

#68 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:43 pm

Hammy wrote:Once again (as with late last night) the IR shows that the convection is expanding slightly in the last few frames towards the NW indicating there could be another wrap-around of convection

edit: if that white area is indeed near the center, it appears that the storm is well east of the 2am forecast point and thus the storm relative shear is remaining the same if not decreasing since is pushing it faster instead of ripping it apart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13L/flash-rbtop-long.html



Yes, the steering winds and shear are in a sense entangled or intermixed at this point. So as you pointed out there is a certain amount of the mid to upper level wind component that is pushing it forward rather than shearing it. You can see the shear component by the elongation of the circulation from SW to NE. The shear component seems to still be only on the northwestern side rather than over the entire circulation. If the models are right the trough will speed up, catch it, and shear it apart. But if the trough doesn't gain any more speed on Lorenzo then the main axis of shear will remain just affecting the northwestern or northern side of the circulation and Lorenzo could keep playing cat and mouse with the shear for another day or so.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:36 pm

Look at the feathering of the clouds on the northern side of the CDO. Sure looks good for something sheared to shreds. Oh, wait, it will be sheared to shreds. Just not yet. :wink:

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:40 pm

ozonepete wrote:Look at the feathering of the clouds on the northern side of the CDO. Sure looks good for something sheared to shreds. Oh, wait, it will be sheared to shreds. Just not yet. :wink:


I'm still of the belief that the center is probably somewhat closer to the deepest convection than the advisory position. It would be nice to get an ASCAT or other scatterometer overpass sometime tonight to get a better idea of the intensity and location.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:56 pm

Hammy wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Look at the feathering of the clouds on the northern side of the CDO. Sure looks good for something sheared to shreds. Oh, wait, it will be sheared to shreds. Just not yet. :wink:


I'm still of the belief that the center is probably somewhat closer to the deepest convection than the advisory position. It would be nice to get an ASCAT or other scatterometer overpass sometime tonight to get a better idea of the intensity and location.


I totally agree. And we'll get one of those passes or a good microwave image sooner or later because this should hang around long enough. I always thought it would do well until late tomorrow and I still do.
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#72 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:01 am

I agree he probably peaked early yesterday around 50-55k. As of this morning we won't need any passes to see a naked swirl at least partially through RGB.

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#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:16 am

It took a bit longer than expected for the weakening trend to start...
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Depression

#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:41 pm

Down to TD.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

...LORENZO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 48.2W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:13 am

How does Lorenzo play a role into the forthcoming huge storm expected to hit the British Isles next week (probably Tuesday)?
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Re:

#76 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:How does Lorenzo play a role into the forthcoming huge storm expected to hit the British Isles next week (probably Tuesday)?

That storm is currently located NE of Newfoundland with hurricane force wind already
Another frontal low to the south is expect to rapidly intensify and merge with the system as it heads for Britan

Lorenzo is nothing more than a little swirl that will be absorbed by them
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