Ohio Valley and Eastern KY Winter 2013-2014

[brunota2003]

I know it is only August, but it has felt more like October lately! This summer has been very mild and WET! We had a week or two of hot temperatures, but just yesterday I had a low of 50! In August!!! The weather office in Jackson had a low of 52 (breaking the record low of 55) up on their ridge top!

I asked the weather office if there was any correlation between a mild winter and a wet summer, and how the following winter is...they replied that there are some snowy analogs that they found (just based off of a quick glance).

1977-1978, 1993-1994, and 2009-2010 were the 3 they posted. The years are not necessarily known for record snows throughout the entire winter...but they are known for the bitter cold and snow that seemingly fell almost every day during the peak winter months!

[WeatherGuesser]

I've been saying for a few weeks now that I'm not looking forward to this winter. I noticed today that some of my trees are dropping leaves already. The hummingbirds seem to be in that pre-migration feeding frenzy.

I've had the window air conditioner turned OFF for several days at a time more than once this summer. Last year it ran continuously for months.

Ground is so wet it squishes in places.

I don't even want to think about 77-78.

[WeatherGuesser]

Trying to figure out why some of my trees are losing leaves already.

[brunota2003]

That is interesting. The last few days here have actually been Augustlike! Sucks when you have to go outside to mow, after such a cool rest of the summer!

[WeatherGuesser]

First two weeks of September look to be warmer than either July or August. Still not sure what, if anything that means for winter. Guess we'll know more by April.

[Dave]

Cold front coming through the midwest starting tonight through Thursday night which will drop us from the 90 to 95 range down to the high 60's & low 70's by Friday with lows in the mid to upper 40's. First taste of fall coming in!

[WeatherGuesser]

Both folklore almanacs are saying colder and snowier.

Forecast for next week is mid to upper 80s which is a bit warm for the period.

[Janie2006]

The famous winter of 1977-78. Does anyone remember *all* the talk being about ice ages and that sort of thing? It seems like a dream now, icicles big enough to stab a deer through the heart, bitter cold, snow.

[WeatherGuesser]

First freeze predicted for Friday morning. According to the climate stats posted by PAH, this is right on track as normal.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 3&source=0

[brunota2003]

Well, the weather office in Jackson, KY has set 3 records, in just as many days! On the 24th, they recorded a 0.1" amount of snowfall and on the 25th, they recorded a trace amount of snowfall (both occurred within a few hours of midnight). That is the first time snow has EVER been observed at the NWS office on both of those dates (climate data only extends back to 1981, though). The airport in Lexington also observed a trace of snow, and that tied a record set back in the 1930s!

The weather office in Jackson also reached 29F this morning as their low, beating the old low of 31F set in 1990 (again, records only date back to 1981).

As for me? I observed a trace amount of sleet in the evening of the 24th, and then a trace amount of snow that night! My low here at the house for this morning was a balmy 25F!

[tomboudreau]

Saw my first snow flakes of the season this week. Now we have cold winds blowing and temps in the 40's. Sure feels like fall around these parts. Cut the grass one last time this morning and moved the winter clean up gear towards the front of the garage with the rakes. Won't be long now until we are deep into the depths of winter.

[WeatherGuesser]

The last four days were 10-15 degrees below normal (average) for this period and today won't be much better. With the 20MPH winds and grey skies, this is not a good outside day.


Mid week looks to be back around 70, but with a chance of storms.

No snow or sleet here, but the frost really took a toll on the tree leaves the last two mornings. Lots of black, shriveled remains.

[WeatherGuesser]

Color is probably around 90% now, but a lot of trees are already bare. I imagine the early frosts and freezes have had something to do with that.

[WeatherGuesser]

FRACK!! The S word!!!


On the seven day forecast for next week:

Wednesday
A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

[brunota2003]

Some of the models are starting to look interesting for a strong coastal low type of event that may bring snow to the region, or at least the eastern portion of the region lol

[WeatherGuesser]

Monday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, high near 42. North wind 9 to 16 mph.

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of light snow. Mostly clear, with a low around 22. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 42. Light northwest wind.

Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 25. Calm wind.

Where's the UN-Like button?

[brunota2003]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...TURNING WINTRY TONIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN...A RAIN OR SNOW MIX...OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...ANY RAIN WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL STEADILY
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES AFTER
DAYBREAK.

KYZ058>060-069-086-106>117-119-120500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0014.131112T0700Z-131112T1400Z/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-JACKSON-KNOX-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...MCKEE...
BARBOURVILLE...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
400 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM EST ON TUESDAY AS
RAIN...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR SNOW...AND TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY 7
AM EST. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES WITHIN TWO HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

* AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS.

* THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF
ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS...PRODUCING SLUSHY OR SLICK SPOTS ON
SOME ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[WeatherGuesser]

Frigid air moving in. Highs all next week may not make it out of the 40s, nights in the 20s, or less.

And it's only late November. I'm NOT looking forward to late January.

[brunota2003]

We are supposed to hit 18F tonight!

It looks like a significant winter storm will impact us in the Monday night through Wednesday time frame. This afternoon's AFD said:

FOCUS WILL TURN TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING IMPACTS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GFS REMAINS
FURTHER SUPPRESSED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FARTHER
NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO REMAIN THE OUTLIER. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED AFTER LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES AS ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS EXCEPT ONE SUPPORT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH
THIS IN MIND...THOUGHT IS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND CAN
LIKELY BE DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
ECMWF...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION.

BASED UPON THE 00Z ECMWF...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM
LOUISIANA...NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL TAKE THE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT RAMPS UP LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 06Z TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW AT THE ONSET AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS SUBZERO. AS THE 850MB LOW PASSES OVERHEAD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MID LEVEL WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER THE RAIN EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEY AS FAR AS
HOW MUCH SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE INITIALLY AND PERHAPS IF FREEZING RAIN
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS THE WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN OVERHEAD. AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION RATES...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT THE CHANGEOVER
OCCURS. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER...OR WE HAVE SOME
SHALLOW COLD AIR WE CANNOT SCOUR OUT...WE COULD SEE MORE OF AN
IMPACT IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME DICEY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S ON THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. IF
SNOWFALL RATES CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA (PERHAPS
EVEN HIGHER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN). HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COLDER RIDGETOPS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. AS
I WAS WRITING THIS...JUST CAUGHT A GLIMPSE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT
NOW HOLDS ONTO THE BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING A
BIT MORE SNOWFALL. THIS COULD YIELD HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN THIS KIND OF
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY ADJUST SNOWFALL TOTALS UP SLIGHTLY
FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Some very interesting wording! If surface temperatures drop low enough Monday night, we could see some accumulating snow initially. Between the snow and if cold air can hang on, we may see a freezing rain threat on Tuesday, followed by more snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Hopefully not another 2009-like ice storm.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hopefully not another 2009-like ice storm.

Don't even go there.

I got hit twice in two years with that. Second time I was in the dark for 11 days.