WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

No, no pinhole eye yet but rapid deepening seems imminent. Should be a typhoon in a matter of hours. Really a freakishly active few months in WPAC.


NOT OFFICIAL.

[cycloneye]

The JTWC 21:00 UTC warning increase the maximun winds to 55kts and the peak is up to 130kts.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
800 AM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN CONTINUES WESTWARD AND MAINTAINS
INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI... YAP ISLAND
AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.6N 146.7E

ABOUT 360 MILES WEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 845 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
WAS LOCATED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER BY SATELLITE NEAR
LATITUDE 6.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.7 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND TURN SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF
WOLEAI AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HAIYAN IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/GUARD

[cycloneye]

125
WTPQ83 PGUM 042239
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN NEARING TYPHOON STRENGTH...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PULUWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE...FOR
SATAWAL...FARAULEP...WOLEAI...FAIS...ULITHI...YAP...NGULU AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR...KAYANGEL AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
EFFECTIVE 800 AM CHST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FARAULEP. THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR FARAULEP IS CANCELLED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI...YAP ISLAND AND
NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 360 MILES WEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 845 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN CONTINUES INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
HAIYAN IS FORECAST TO BE A TYPHOON WHEN IT PASSES WOLEAI THIS
EVENING.

...PULUWAT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 9 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THIS MORNING. INUNDATION AROUND 1 FOOT
ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...SATAWAL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH AROUND MIDDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
SURF OF 13 TO 16 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...WOLEAI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY IN A
SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM. DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOW
THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

.WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK AT 75 TO 85
MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 16 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 16 TO 20 FEET
THIS EVENING...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AS HIGH AS 20 FEET ALONG
WINDWARD SHORES THIS EVENING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.

...FARAULEP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. SECURE LOOSE OUTSIDE OBJECTS
THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN AWAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNSET. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS SURF OF 13 TO 16 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES THROUGH THIS EVENING. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...FAIS...ULITHI...YAP AND NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A
TYPHOON. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TYPHOON CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW 40 MPH BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. COASTAL INUNDATION MAY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A
TYPHOON. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. TYPHOON CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING IF HAIYAN TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION MAY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG WINDWARD
SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 300 PM...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

MCELROY

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 5 November 2013

<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°30'(6.5°)
E145°55'(145.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°00'(7.0°)
E143°30'(143.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N7°35'(7.6°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,look at how Haiyan is doing a RI as microwave shows.

[hurricanes1234]

What's going on here?! ADT numbers are skyrocketing!!!


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.1mb/ 90.0kt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS shifts *slightly* south, closer to Leyte (hitting Tacloban!). Probably due to the fact that Haiyan is more in a westerly direction.

[stormkite]

Hey folks,look at how Haiyan is doing a RI as microwave shows.

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/9547/4jk9.jpg

It will be no surprise to see Haiyan start bombing at around 134E 9-10 N




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

EC is slightly north of that track. anything north of what the EC has would result in typhoon conditions in Manila

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How large are the typhoon-force winds by landfall?

[hurricanes1234]

Newly upgraded Typhoon Haiyan...

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon

WTPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 31W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 6.4N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 6.6N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 7.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 8.1N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 10.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.1N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 145.2E.
TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[stormkite]

Wind speed rapidly building in the vortex and the cloud towers are warming.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

JMA latest track. Their previous forecast track was more to the south.



While I think JTWC will slightly shift the trackline to the south. Waiting for the graphics.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA latest track. Their previous forecast track was more to the south.



While I think JTWC will slightly shift the trackline to the south. Waiting for the graphics.

I sort of disagree with JMA's track. Haiyan is moving to the west right now. It took a slight SW jog yesterday.

I guess Haiyan will make landfall over Central Leyte as a ''Very Strong'' typhoon!

Pray for them....

===================================================================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

^the westward motion is already expected for the next 12-24 hours. The critical period IMO will begin after 48 hours if it will lift north or stay on a westerly direction.

[ManilaTC]

^the westward motion is already expected for the next 12-24 hours. The critical period IMO will begin after 48 hours if it will lift north or stay on a westerly direction.

I agree. If you have been following the past tracks the couple of days, it has been expected to track west in the next 24-48 hours then turn to the WNW before it passes Yap/Palau.

If that turn occurs early, then its bad news for Bicol and Southern Luzon.
If that turn occurs late or even doesnt occur, then its Visayas bound.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^the westward motion is already expected for the next 12-24 hours. The critical period IMO will begin after 48 hours if it will lift north or stay on a westerly direction.

I agree. If you have been following the past tracks the couple of days, it has been expected to track west in the next 24-48 hours then turn to the WNW before it passes Yap/Palau.

If that turn occurs early, then its bad news for Bicol and Southern Luzon.
If that turn occurs late or even doesnt occur, then its Visayas bound.

As of 2010, Visayas has a population of over 11,000,000.
Other than that...Bad for Cebu City? If it is, will we experience typhoon-force winds on Friday?

JTWC shifted south, same as the GFS.

[dexterlabio]

^Both GFS and ECMWF are showing very large wind field by landfall. Check out Levi Cowan's website for hi-res graphics, lots of useful tools too. This could be as large, or maybe larger than 2011's Nesat. If JMA's track verifies, northern Cebu could still see typhoon conditions IMO.