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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:30 pm 
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now for the sobering news

Reading on the tstorms list that Tacloban "only" received cat 1/2 winds. The strongest winds did in fact remain south of the city.

Which means if we are seeing horrors from Tacloban, how bad is it in Guiuan?


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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:32 pm 
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I still cant view the JTWC image, thanks for trying though.
Based on other posts it suggests the JMA forecast is more likely to occur and there is a reasonable chance Haiyan will follow the coastline.

This scenario will spread damage across a large area but it will avoid major damage at any locations in Vietnam and by the time the eastern quadrants reach Hainan Island it should have lost more strength.


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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:34 pm 
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madness wrote:
I still cant view the JTWC image, thanks for trying though.
Based on other posts it suggests the JMA forecast is more likely to occur and there is a reasonable chance Haiyan will follow the coastline.

This scenario will spread damage across a large area but it will avoid major damage at any locations in Vietnam and by the time the eastern quadrants reach Hainan Island it should have lost more strength.


the Hanoi area is very densely populated and VERY surge prone


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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:40 pm 
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Alyono wrote:
the Hanoi area is very densely populated and VERY surge prone


Definitely - but first will be the Central Vietnam coastline and the cities Da Nang/Hue


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:49 pm 
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My wife found this on Facebook: Long video report on GMA News (Philippines)

Jiggy Manicad and Love Añover report on Yolanda devastation in Leyte...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y438d4Vl ... e=youtu.be

There's quite a bit of just the anchors talking, but there's plenty of sobering video, too.

We've not heard anything from / of our relatives in Ormoc City.

If this link has been posted previously, I apologize. (I did search the last couple pages.)

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:51 pm 
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The thing one has to understand is that, while they get hit by typhoons somewhat frequently, how much of their housing is built to survive Cat 3+ winds? It isn't like southern Florida where a lot of the new construction could, theoricially, survive Cat 4 winds thanks to the strong coding. So therefore, I don't think the mantra of "Hide from the wind, run from the water" really works in this case, with sustained winds in the 130+ mph range.

In that case, it begs the question...when you can't hide from the wind, or run to a safe place to hide from the water/wind...what do you do? I read a tweet stating govt officials said only a few houses were left standing in Tacloban City...a city of over 220,000 people! And also the city where Typhoonfury/crew and Jim Edds set up.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:55 pm 
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Alyono wrote:
have to run from this type of wind. It is not really survivable.

EF5 tornadoes destroy the best of buildings. That's why people are starting to evacuate from the path of them. These winds were the same, where the max winds were


Very small areas experience EF4-5 level winds though, only those who get the absolute maximum gusts. Much larger areas experience extreme storm surges, in this case likely about 25 feet.

Even the NWS has a hard time getting the message out about storm surges and would have problems in this situation. Not too many typhoons - and certainly not super typhoons - go through the southern Philippines (most hit Luzon, which isn't exactly surge-prone from the east). PAGASA was trying its hardest as they did forecast a surge of 14 to 20 feet...


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:56 pm 
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Alyono wrote:
now for the sobering news

Reading on the tstorms list that Tacloban "only" received cat 1/2 winds. The strongest winds did in fact remain south of the city.

Which means if we are seeing horrors from Tacloban, how bad is it in Guiuan?


Remember also, New Orleans only saw Cat 1 winds during Katrina for the most part. The surge and winds are not necessarily going to be in the same locations. Tacloban may not have got the maximum winds, but a 25 foot storm surge would decimate the city big time.


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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:58 pm 
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Here are a few tweets, following up my above post:

@mpoppel: BREAKING -- REU: Gov't agency spokesman says "only a few houses left standing" in Tacloban which had a population of 220,000

@mpoppel: Earlier today, CNN reported that the last message from airport near Tacloban was a text that said: "Airport ruined, need assistance"

@mpoppel: ABS-CBN: Entire terminal of Tacloban City Airport was destroyed by typhoon; only runway remains

@mpoppel: ABS-CBN: Runway of Tacloban City Airport has now been cleared for emergency landings; all airport buildings destroyed

@mpoppel: CNN reporter in Tacloban says damage resembles that of a tsunami, saying water surge reaches second level of buildings

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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:01 pm 
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Are there any new pictures coming from Tacloban City?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:02 pm 
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somethingfunny wrote:
Alyono wrote:

No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.

Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge


Wind, even in this situation, is still more survivable than a storm surge is. Hide from wind, run from surge has always been the mantra of emergency management authorities. Even the most well-constructed bunker is a deathtrap if it's overtaken by water.

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:
http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html

bodies are in the streets


Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.

Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.

Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.


Reports I saw before the storm suggested most of the coastal residents just didn't comprehend what a storm surge was or why they had to leave. Even the authorities - not blaming PAGASA as they did forecast a 15 foot surge - didn't seem to understand the threat well, or at least they didn't communicate it well. Think about it - in most of the Philippines, there's a sharp drop-off to the Philippine Trench right offshore, which mitigates surges. The Leyte Gulf is one of the few natural "surge traps" and at such a low latitude, strong typhoons are pretty rare in that location. I suspect it's just a foreign concept to many Philippine people. There isn't even a Tagalog word for "storm surge".

When we were talking to Stormstrike from Tacloban earlier in this thread (around Page 25) he was concerned about Haiyan, but only about the winds and maybe rain flooding, and he felt somewhat safe because his house is concrete, his trees were tripped back, and he has supplies. I asked him his elevation above sea level and he had no idea and didn't realize it was even a concern. I told him the storm surge will be like a tsunami and he freaked out. Everybody around the world understands tsunamis after all the videos of the past few years, and that's the type of visceral language that needs to be used to communicate the threat of storm surge flooding in the future.

I hope Stormstrike is safe and checks in soon, and I'm glad to see many of you others from the region are checking back in now.


My wife (from Cebu) tells me there is also no equivalent word for "storm surge" in Visayan language. There's probably not one in the local (Leyte) dialect either?

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:10 pm 
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PaulR wrote:
My wife (from Cebu) tells me there is also no equivalent word for "storm surge" in Visayan language. There's probably not one in the local (Leyte) dialect either?

What about something like rapidly rising ocean/water levels?

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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:12 pm 
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supercane4867 wrote:
Are there any new pictures coming from Tacloban City?

I haven't seen any, I think info is only coming out via sat phone at the moment. But with reports of over 100 bodies just laying in the streets, I wouldn't want to see photos, out of respect for the deceased and their families.

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Last edited by brunota2003 on Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:12 pm 
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Alyono wrote:
have to run from this type of wind. It is not really survivable.

EF5 tornadoes destroy the best of buildings. That's why people are starting to evacuate from the path of them. These winds were the same, where the max winds were


No, they don't. They destroy wood-frame buildings, low-rise buildings, but not concrete buildings, not steel-frame buildings. Hospitals were gutted in Moore and Joplin, but the interior hallways were safe. Hundreds of people survived the direct hit inside truly well constructed buildings. An elementary school in Moore was hit by an EF-5 tornado. Only one classroom had any fatalities... EF-5 tornadoes, Category Five winds, are absolutely survivable in a proper building.

That's not meant to imply that there are any such structures in the landfall zone of this typhoon, (and evacuations aren't really practical on an island) but your chances are still better hunkering down in an elevated area than on the coastal plain.

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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:20 pm 
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Quote:
Reading on the tstorms list that Tacloban "only" received cat 1/2 winds. The strongest winds did in fact remain south of the city.



No. The southern half of the city was directly hit by the strong-side eyewall and received upper end cat 5 winds. This is clear from the earlier radar and satellite images. The damage there will be total. Only the best built steel reinforced concrete structures will remain.


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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:21 pm 
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From a friend of a friend (on Facebook):

Quote:
Our latest report on tacloban: numerous people are feared dead after the astrodome sports complex which served as a shelter collapsed with lots of evacuees inside. There was a tsunami-like effect and it is reported that a ship of undetermined size was washed on top of the gaisano supermarket. Two truckloads of army soldiers from catb was met with surging flood, was washed away. Only two soldiers survived. Two housing projects near the San Juanico bridge were flooded.water in the city proper was reported to have reached at least 10 feet..vehicles were washed away like match boxes..


I hope not all this is accurate...

A compounding factor is that many, many people in the Philippines do not know how to swim, have not been taught survival skills in water, etc. Or as a friend put it, "Over 1000 islands and no one knows how to swim". Whereas I grew up in Kansas and (at least when I was younger) swim like a fish. Seems backwards, doesn't it.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:22 pm 
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EF-5 tornadoes have 3 second wind gusts of over 200 mph (that is what the winds are, the highest 3 second gusts damage points to...nothing about sustained) and in a very small area that passes over in at most a couple of minutes. Imagine if those 3 second gusts continued and lasted for 10 or even 20 minutes.

You're talking about winds in this typhoon that were sustained up to 195 mph (estimated of course), with gusts in excess of 225 mph...in some instances these winds would be present for 5 or more straight minutes, with not so strong winds immediately surrounding it. Big difference between tornadoes and hurricanes.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:22 pm 
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Don't forget to take in account the duration of these strong winds I assume would be much longer than in a tornado where it hits.

Perhaps I missed it, but anything out of Palau particularly out of Kayangel? It was a monster when it hit the islands there before the Philippines.

Edit: brunota hit the spot there ^

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 Post subject: Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:27 pm 
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thunderchief wrote:
Quote:
Reading on the tstorms list that Tacloban "only" received cat 1/2 winds. The strongest winds did in fact remain south of the city.



No. The southern half of the city was directly hit by the strong-side eyewall and received upper end cat 5 winds. This is clear from the earlier radar and satellite images. The damage there will be total. Only the best built steel reinforced concrete structures will remain.


Are you on that mailing list of pro trop mets? It has been well discussed today that the strongest winds did miss the city and someone cited a modeling analysis as further evidence.


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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:31 pm 
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somethingfunny wrote:
Alyono wrote:
have to run from this type of wind. It is not really survivable.

EF5 tornadoes destroy the best of buildings. That's why people are starting to evacuate from the path of them. These winds were the same, where the max winds were


No, they don't. They destroy wood-frame buildings, low-rise buildings, but not concrete buildings, not steel-frame buildings. Hospitals were gutted in Moore and Joplin, but the interior hallways were safe. Hundreds of people survived the direct hit inside truly well constructed buildings. An elementary school in Moore was hit by an EF-5 tornado. Only one classroom had any fatalities... EF-5 tornadoes, Category Five winds, are absolutely survivable in a proper building.

That's not meant to imply that there are any such structures in the landfall zone of this typhoon, (and evacuations aren't really practical on an island) but your chances are still better hunkering down in an elevated area than on the coastal plain.


Agreed, though I would modify that slightly to say "reinforced concrete buildings". Someone many pages back posted a picture of a tornado destroyed "reinforced concrete building", but it was not: It was concrete block construction. Similarly, many if not most of the casualties in Murphysboro, IL, in the great Tri-State tornado, were in quite substantial masonry or brick buildings -- that collapsed on them.

The problem in the Philippines is that it is a relatively poor country, and it takes a lot of money to build structures that are both high end earthquake and typhoon resistant, not to mention finding locations on volcanic islands not subject to landslides or flooding.

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