SIO: INVEST 93S

[supercane4867]

93S INVEST 140107 0000 20.9S 42.6E SHEM 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0S 35.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM A SYSTEM TRACKING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
ENTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS MARGINAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

May intensify into a moderate tropical storm near southwestern Madagascar after 24 hours (12:00 PM UTC, 08 January 2014)

WTIO30 FMEE 081248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20132014

1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5
2.A POSITION 2014/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 39.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

12H: 2014/01/09 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2014/01/09 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/10 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2014/01/10 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2014/01/11 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/01/11 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

[Grifforzer]

categorized as a tropical depression now.

WTIO30 FMEE 090649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
2.A POSITION 2014/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 42.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

12H: 2014/01/09 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2014/01/10 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/01/10 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/01/11 06 UTC: 35.5 S / 45.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2014/01/11 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

[Extratropical94]

Reading that this was called Zone of disturbed weather #5, I wonder why the first disturbance in this basin (the one in July) didn't get a number. Does anyone know why?

[DanieleItalyRm]

http://www.sat24.com/it-it/mg

gen. 7 2013


gen.9 2013 (Today)

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
39.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 40.3E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST EQUTORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.4S
42.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 44.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOWING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 091800Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS FAIRLY DEFINED DESPITE A
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED NEAR AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIMITING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FURTHER
DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

We have Colin.

08S COLIN 140111 0000 15.5S 81.0E SHEM 45 989

[HurricaneBill]

We have Colin.

08S COLIN 140111 0000 15.5S 81.0E SHEM 45 989

Colin's in the other thread.

[cycloneye]

We have Colin.

08S COLIN 140111 0000 15.5S 81.0E SHEM 45 989

Colin's in the other thread.

Thank you for the clarification.