WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
151.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Interesting.

System is very broad and formation of a new LLCC is possible.

[euro6208]

GFS on a super typhoon scenario.

How did you make that assumption? Is it how tightly wrapped the isobars are or how intense it looks?

The lowest pressure I see on the map is in the 970's. Not exactly Super Typhoon strength.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS on a super typhoon scenario.

How did you make that assumption? Is it how tightly wrapped the isobars are or how intense it looks?

The lowest pressure I see on the map is in the 970's. Not exactly Super Typhoon strength.

I thought it was. As I checked in Wunderground, the winds are stronger than I saw previously. Pressure of 961 mb. Also in the Simulated IR, I see a well-defined eye.

The pressure is not a 100% guarantee. It's like when it showed a 980+ mb pressure for Haiyan after traversing Visayas.

Models usually show weaker than actual intensity, but not always as the case with Lingling. Typhoons rarely form on these months, so I am not completely sold on this.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

JTWC:

93W INVEST 140220 1200 7.9N 150.1E WPAC 15 1010

JMA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[cycloneye]

GFS bombs 93W.

[stormkite]

(If and that looks to be a big if) it does develop the track has to be questionable. Hopefully a fishy that curves Nth



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[dexterlabio]

The current pattern suggests a northerly track. Recent GFS model runs show this as well. The Pacific islands might be the ones feeling the effects of this system if it develops into a strong cyclone.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would have to agree with dexterlabio as the winds push this storm NNW, but, a westerly track is still likely. Although it would be weaker in intensity [if it crosses the Philippines], it can still cause winds and floods/landslides. Shear is rapidly decreasing over those areas too and we see higher temperature anomalies over the Equatorial Western and Central Pacific. The problems this storm has to face are dry air and high pressure ridges.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As of now, 93W is sheared. As it travels west, it could encounter lesser shear and could develop those areas away from shear.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As with the models, this is what they develop:
GFS - They show a strong typhoon recurving north-northeasterly towards the far Pacific.
ECMWF - I don't know, but, they show a low-pressure area or a tropical depression.
NAVGEM - A strong tropical storm moving westerly.
Take note the NAVGEM's forecast is until 144^^ hours. Generally they are trying to agree with GFS in terms of intensity though. ECMWF model shows up to 180 hours although it is when the storm shows its "possible peak".

GFS show a 52-kt storm with a pressure of 995 hPa. NAVGEM shows a 46-kt storm with a pressure of 992 hPa

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 210358Z
NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK SHOW LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WITH SLP NEAR 1004 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

so much energy down there....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice burst of convection.

[dexterlabio]

I'm monitoring this one to see if the GFS solution will pan out. I'll gladly welcome the first typhoon of the year as long as it's a fish.

[euro6208]

12Z out...

Erratic stationary movement south of the Marianas then heads north and directly hits Guam and the CNMI!

[ManilaTC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST SAT FEB 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED THINGS WAY DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS. IT NOW KEEPS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...AND KEEPS IT WEAK THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. THIS IS
QUITE A CONTRAST WITH THE 06Z RUN...WHICH DEVELOPED IT QUICKLY AND
EJECTED IT WESTWARD...PASSING IT SOUTH OF GUAM ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z
RUN LOOKS MORE REALISTIC IN VIEW OF RECENT HISTORY AND WHEN
COMPARED WITH THE OTHER MODELS...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO TUE NIGHT AND EXTENDED THEM AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE
DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE MORE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN RECURVING IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND. THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND PREFER THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS IT MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST PAST THE MARIANAS. ALL OF
THIS IS STILL RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE...AND EXPECT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TO PRESENT US WITH YET MORE INTERESTING VARIATIONS ON THE FUTURE
OF 93W.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS 18Z run shows a strong TS while 00Z run shows strong TY. IMO, they are too bullish.

[dexterlabio]

Looks more and more like a fish. The only way this storm can get stronger is if it recurves away from drier air and high pressure across the Philippines.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
151.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Another one bites the dust

[ManilaTC]

ITS BACK AGAIN... Seems to be cycling its LLCC

ABPW10 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS
REISSUED/222100Z-230600ZFEB2014//

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 153.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 221705Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC
HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED DESPITE THE CONVECTION REMAINING BROKEN
AND DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

--------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
635 AM CHST SUN FEB 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF 93W...SHOWING SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN BRINGING IT
WESTWARD TO A POSITION EAST OF YAP AROUND 140E ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER. BOTH MODELS STALL IT
THERE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN BRING IT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MARIANAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THIS TRACK SEEMED FAR-FETCHED WHEN ONLY THE
GFS WAS SHOWING IT...IT SEEMS LESS SO NOW THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL
HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE SAME IDEA. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS NOT A
LIKELY SCENARIO...BOTH FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL REASONS AND BECAUSE OF
THE FACT THAT 93W HAS FAILED TO SHOW ANY TENDENCY TO DEVELOP FOR
THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS.

JTWC BEST TRACK
93W INVEST 140223 0000 4.1N 153.2E WPAC 15 1010

JMA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 156E ALMOST STATIONARY.