WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

Should be upgraded only to 55 knots or more by JMA but also remember that 10 min winds are 1.13 times slower than 1 min.

I read somewhere cant remember where right now but it claims over water there is no real difference between 1min/10min its over land where there's friction is when it comes into play.

[stormkite]

Open and shut case.

[euro6208]

JMA's only presence is to the asian countries in the WPAC where they even have their own Meteorological Agency

Everyone knows that here.

What i meant is Guam is US Territory as far as i know by my way of thinking its a cat1 .If it was close to japan prolly been upgraded yesterday by the JMA .

It wouldn't matter on location. Dvorak already indicating a typhoon with an eye. Just because it's near a certain land doesn't mean a quicker upgrade to typhoon. You have valuable imagerys that can see through regular ones to reveal an eye, ASCAT, microwave and radar etc.

So based on this is now a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Open and shut case.

65 knots yep a typhoon right there.

[euro6208]

65 knots seem too low KNES reporting as high as 5.0!

[stormkite]

Yep certainly cranking. at a rate of knots now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should be at least 80 kts now. Certainly got the looks of a cranking typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA upgraded Tapah to 55 kts. I thought they'd upgrade to a typhoon or at least 65 kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

65 knots seem too low KNES reporting as high as 5.0!

What is 5.0 equivalent to?

[stormkite]

T 5 is = to 90 knots 1 min / 79 in ten min scale.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

60 kts from JMA. They will upgrade this soon.

[stormkite]

Was looking over some models xtyphooncyclonex that other LPA at 4.51 N 161E looks to spin up and track over your way.

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 APR 2014 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 16:36:15 N Lon : 147:33:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.1mb/ 82.2kt

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291006
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
800 PM CHST TUE APR 29 2014

...TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.6N 147.3E

ABOUT 275 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.3 DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON TAPAH IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 MPH. TAPAH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHILE MAINTAINING CURRENT FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TYPHOON TAPAH IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER TONIGHT AT 1100 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORYWEDNESDAY MORNING AT 200 AM.


$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 291053
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
9 PM CHST TUE APR 29 2014

...TAPAH MOVING NORTHWARD...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS AT
TINIAN...SAIPAN...PAGAN ALAMAGAN ISLANDS IN THE MARIANAS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

TYPHOON TAPAH WAS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED
TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS OR FLOODING.

CLOSELY MONITOR HIGH FREQUENCY RADIO FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST VIA
SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO
MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO
YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE
...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS
WEARING LIFE JACKETS... AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY TO AND FROM
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...UNTIL TROPICAL STORM TAPAH HAS PASSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TROPICAL
STORM TAPAH CONTINUES NORTHWARD. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH NEAR
MIDNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
TAPAH TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 20 TO 25 MPH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE TAPAH REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM...SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK
FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 11 TO 15 FEET REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
AT THIS TIME...HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
JUST EAST OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. HOWEVER...BOTH LOCATIONS COULD
STILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 300 AM CHST WEDNESDAY...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Typhoon Tapah has now contributed 2.7 ACE bringing our season total to 10.3725.

Normal Yearly ACE is 13...

Basin Name Current Wind Max Wind ACE
06W TAPAH
65
65 2.7

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291247
TCPPQ1

TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
1100 PM CHST TUE APR 29 2014

...TAPAH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.3N 147.6E

ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 275 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 205 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 195 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON TAPAH (06W) WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.6 DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON TAPAH IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 MPH. TAPAH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
MAINTAINING CURRENT FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TYPHOON TAPAH IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 200 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tapah has just peaked. It is forecast to weaken according to both JMA and JTWC due to unfavorable conditions along its path. No longer expecting a typhoon Tapah from JMA.

[stormkite]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXmb3ux8y1A#t=88[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Tapah has just peaked. It is forecast to weaken according to both JMA and JTWC due to unfavorable conditions along its path. No longer expecting a typhoon Tapah from JMA.

This is hilarious!

Tons of evidence including an eye but still only STS? What more do they want?

Official doesn't mean right...

Robert Speta even agreeing with JTWC...

[euro6208]

Tapah has just peaked at 65 knots and expected to weaken from now on...



WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
291057Z METOP-B MICROWAVE PASS BOTH DEPICT A SLIGHTLY-WEAKENED DEEP
CONVECTION, YET CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A 291057Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS;
HOWEVER, TY 06W HAS MOVED INTO A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS
FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BY TAU 72, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD.
C. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT BY TAU 96 OR EVEN SOONER.
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN