WPAC: INVEST 93W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WPAC: INVEST 93W
Another 10-knot invest east of Taiwan.
Last edited by Meow on Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
10 knots is the speed of the wind when I go outside. Invest 92W which is no longer there, was 10 knots as well.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
I believe invests 92W and 93W are all part of a trough/low pressure system tracking towards the northeast. But according to the previous GFS models, a few tropical systems will form out of this. Reasonable, since the SST's in South China Sea is very warm, actually a bit warmer than the waters in the easternmost region of WPAC right now.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Sat Jun 07, 2014 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
dexterlabio wrote:I believe invests 92W and 93W are all part of a trough/low pressure system tracking towards the northeast. But according to the previous GFS models, a few tropical systems will form out of this. Reasonable, since the SST's in the South China Sea is very warm, actually a bit warmer than most of the water in far WPAC right now.
93W is fed by moist from the South China Sea. That is the GFS forecasting system.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
LOW chance!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N 122.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071450Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER 071320Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED A 05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20
KNOT) WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF
25N AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N 122.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071450Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER 071320Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED A 05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (15 TO 20
KNOT) WINDS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF
25N AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.1N
123.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Well, there should be Invest 94W down SW of where 93W was, and which the former [94W] has a good chance of development, as the models are showing a mid-to-strong tropical storm from it.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Well, there should be Invest 94W down SW of where 93W was, and which the former [94W] has a good chance of development, as the models are showing a mid-to-strong tropical storm from it.
What you said is another system which will form within a few days. The current two vortices are consolidating, and they may become one tomorrow.
0 likes
- richard-K2013
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Age: 30
- Joined: Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:59 pm
- Location: Taoyuan, Taiwan
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Then we should have 94W. The JMA has a better and more spot-on location for the system. I don't see a circulation N of Taipei, but the actual rotation is far SSW of Kaohsiung or closer to WNW of Batanes.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests