weathernerdguy wrote:It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.
I recall the original system emerging off the SC coast near or a bit south of Charleston.
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weathernerdguy wrote:It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.
Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S
Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
galaxy401 wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S
Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Quicker than you thought? Arthur seems to be weakening slowly right now still maintaining its structure. It's forecasted to be at tropical storm strength when it gets to Nova Scotia.
Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The comparisons of Arthur with Alicia are very interesting. Both indeed had similar origins off a frontal low, albeit in different locations. Both also ramped up quickly before striking where they did.
I know I may be straying from the main topic here, but with this year shaping up to be an El Nino, it is historically more typical for the US to get hit by storms with origins like Arthur than from the deep tropics. This type of storm this year, therefore, does not surprise me at all. The one thing I am slightly surprised with is that it came so early in the year. However, the are three other El Nino years where a hurricane did hit in either June or July: 1972 with Agnes, 1986 with Bonnie, and 1997 with Danny. Yet, only 1986 produced any more hurricane strikes, with Charley coming along in August of that year (a seemingly similar storm to Arthur in a lot of ways, I might add).
There is one other interesting facet about Arthur. By the winds, it is the first category 2 hurricane to hit the US since Ike, and I am not going to try to dispute that. However, what is really compelling is that it also has the highest pressure of any of the hurricanes to hit since Ike! Irene was 952 mb, Isaac 966, and Sandy 945. Arthur checks in with a preliminary reading of 973.
Overall, since I have really been following hurricanes since 1996, I think I would most compare this storm to Bertha in 1996 in terms of winds, pressure, and my guess for overall impact.
Of course, Arthur isn't done. This storm is going to pass dangerously close to Nantucket and Cape Cod, and I think close enough to where some rough weather, including some damaging winds or coastal flooding could easily happen. However, I think it will stay just offshore. In fact, I actually compare this storm now to Edouard in 1996 for New England, although wouldn't be surprised if it comes a little closer with slightly stronger winds. That storm still did some damage there, and if my thinking is right, the potential is there for a bit more than that one, so be prepared and stay safe everyone up there.
-Andrew92
TheStormExpert wrote:Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The comparisons of Arthur with Alicia are very interesting. Both indeed had similar origins off a frontal low, albeit in different locations. Both also ramped up quickly before striking where they did.
I know I may be straying from the main topic here, but with this year shaping up to be an El Nino, it is historically more typical for the US to get hit by storms with origins like Arthur than from the deep tropics. This type of storm this year, therefore, does not surprise me at all. The one thing I am slightly surprised with is that it came so early in the year. However, the are three other El Nino years where a hurricane did hit in either June or July: 1972 with Agnes, 1986 with Bonnie, and 1997 with Danny. Yet, only 1986 produced any more hurricane strikes, with Charley coming along in August of that year (a seemingly similar storm to Arthur in a lot of ways, I might add).
There is one other interesting facet about Arthur. By the winds, it is the first category 2 hurricane to hit the US since Ike, and I am not going to try to dispute that. However, what is really compelling is that it also has the highest pressure of any of the hurricanes to hit since Ike! Irene was 952 mb, Isaac 966, and Sandy 945. Arthur checks in with a preliminary reading of 973.
Overall, since I have really been following hurricanes since 1996, I think I would most compare this storm to Bertha in 1996 in terms of winds, pressure, and my guess for overall impact.
Of course, Arthur isn't done. This storm is going to pass dangerously close to Nantucket and Cape Cod, and I think close enough to where some rough weather, including some damaging winds or coastal flooding could easily happen. However, I think it will stay just offshore. In fact, I actually compare this storm now to Edouard in 1996 for New England, although wouldn't be surprised if it comes a little closer with slightly stronger winds. That storm still did some damage there, and if my thinking is right, the potential is there for a bit more than that one, so be prepared and stay safe everyone up there.
-Andrew92
The thing about Arthur's pressure is all those storms you mentioned were larger in size compared to Arthur, which of course meant lower pressure.
galaxy401 wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Looking like it'll be fairly weak by time it gets to N.S
Not surprising, but it is weakening a little quicker than I expected personally.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Quicker than you thought? Arthur seems to be weakening slowly right now still maintaining its structure. It's forecasted to be at tropical storm strength when it gets to Nova Scotia.
psyclone wrote:weathernerdguy wrote:It's funny how Arthur made landfall right around where he departed North Carolina when he was just a low.
I recall the original system emerging off the SC coast near or a bit south of Charleston.
Time_Zone wrote:Down to 80 MPH
Weakening very quickly.
Time_Zone wrote:How is the pressure falling? It's over cold water and high shear.
This storm confuses me...
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