WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#81 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:52 pm

Matmo did strengthened over the past 24 hours and is looking very healthy.. Let's see what we will get out of this.

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#82 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:55 pm

Not intensifying at the moment

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .52pc.html

earlier, a well defined eye was visible on the microwave. Now... looks to have been sheared a bit
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#83 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:22 pm

I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.

It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system
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#84 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:37 pm

The GFS continues to forecast a beautiful upper-air setup for Matmo, with a large anticyclone and dual outflow channels. Conducive for rapid deepening if it pans out.

I think we'll be dealing with a whole different storm in 2 to 3 days than we are now.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#85 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:37 pm

Alyono wrote:I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.

It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system


Here here!

It's beyond useless when it comes to that. Bring back the glory days of the Euro, I remember it nailing Sepat back in 2007 over a week out, formation and track. Funnily the JTWC forecast track for Matmo reminds me of Sepat somewhat.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:49 pm

Hi James. Are you going to chase Matmo in Taiwan?
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#87 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:39 pm

Badly sheared at the moment

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .84pc.html

Most likely, this is not a typhoon at the moment, but should become one again in about 12 hours
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:22 pm

10W MATMO 140720 0000 12.7N 129.5E WPAC 70 970

Remains 70 knots.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:54 pm

It doesn't look like a typhoon...

_______________________________
TXPQ29 KNES 200327
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MATMO)

B. 20/0232Z

C. 13.5N

D. 129.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENTATION LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY WITH AN EXTENSIVE COLD OVERCAST THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE EYE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 1541Z AND 1846Z IS GONE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 2141Z
THROUGH 0109Z SHOWED AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM WAS CHARACTERIZED IN THE 0232Z VISIBLE IMAGE BY AN IRREGULAR
1.6 DEGREE CDO WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES
USED TO DERIVE THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0109Z 13.5N 129.8E TMI


...TURK
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#90 Postby vrif » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:34 pm

This is what the ascat-a saw 4 hours ago.
Image
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#91 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:53 pm

Looks more like 60 kts, and not 65-70 knots.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:14 am

Very interesting 00Z run.

Completely misses Taiwan and instead makes landfall south of Shanghai, The most populated city on earth!

Pressure 958 mb...
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#93 Postby madness » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:42 am

The 00Z GFS run is showing a possible landfall in Zhejiang province and weakening to "tropical storm strength" at Shanghai and then curves NE towards the Korean Peninsula.

5-day forecasts for typhoons have a considerable tracking error - we will have to wait and see.
It is "normal" to get typhoons curving NE towards the Korean Peninsula though usually they dont cross the east Chinese coastline.

Edit: the JMA 5-day forecast is very different to GFS
There is too much uncertainty to draw conclusions this early
By Tuesday the forecasts should be more aligned and we can try to draw conclusions
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#94 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:32 am

Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#95 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:46 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.


Since when has it started raining in your area? Was it heavy or continuous?



I agree with the previous posts, this doesn't look like a typhoon..in fact this could be the ugliest-looking typhoon I've seen. :lol: Though the latest few sat frames show the structure becoming more circular and symmetric again...
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#96 Postby ^tamago^ » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:07 pm

GEM 2012Z says an eye over Taipei.
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#97 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:21 pm

not a hint of an eyewall in the latest microwave pass. still dealing with the wind shear
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#98 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:14 pm

remains highly sheared and has a CCC pattern on satellite imagery. Both indicate no intensification

GFS has not handled this correctly to date as this should have been intensifying by now
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#99 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:27 pm

ugliest typhoon I ever saw. I'm surprised both JMA and JTWC is not yet downgrading this.
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#100 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:51 pm

it's starting to show signs of intensification, actually.. the effects of strong wind shear are starting to wear off--you can see it on the visible satellite loop. the eyewall is also starting to take shape.

we should see continuous intensification from now until landfall tomorrow. i'm still expecting this to reach Category 3 strength.

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