CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2014080112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1070W, 20, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 45 55 67 79 87 97 102 106
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 45 55 67 79 87 97 102 106
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 49 57 66 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 9 8 2 6 10 14 12 15 11 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 1 0 3 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 12 13 14 29 29 56 110 82 66 55 57 54 10
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5

[Kingarabian]

EPAC is swinging at Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Long-range GFS has for a while brought it semi-close to Hawaii.

[hurricanes1234]

Looking at these forecasts, it won't surprise me to see a stronger hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS calls for a Cat 1.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at these forecasts, it won't surprise me to see a stronger hurricane.

It would not shock me either, but models usually come down after the 1st run.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression over the weekend as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF semi-agressive



GFS as well

[somethingfunny]

GFS makes this one even stronger than Iselle and also sends it into Hawaii.



CMC looked very similar to GFS, and ECMWF also shows a strong Julio but misses Hawaii to the north.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 08/02/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 64 77 86 93 99 104 104
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 64 77 86 93 99 104 104
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 57 65 73 79 83 84
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 12 11 11 11 9 6 8 14 16 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 2
SHEAR DIR 65 67 64 62 65 56 80 53 46 42 59 66 36
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.0

[Yellow Evan]

Major!



Doomsday. Has it passing close to the island as a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

That would be the biggest hit for them since Iniki?

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near the area of low pressure located
about 700 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for additional development, and this
system could become a tropical depression at any time during the
next day or two while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Kingarabian]

I think Recon could stay in Hawaii after they sample Iselle on Wednesday.

[CrazyC83]

I think Recon could stay in Hawaii after they sample Iselle on Wednesday.

They will likely need to stay there. They start sampling at about 145W?

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 2014080218, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1134W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Yellow Evan]

I think Recon could stay in Hawaii after they sample Iselle on Wednesday.

That's what they did back in the 80's and 90's when the EPAC was in its heyday. They would sometimes fly into storms on their way back as well.

[Kingarabian]

I think Recon could stay in Hawaii after they sample Iselle on Wednesday.

They will likely need to stay there. They start sampling at about 145W?

I think it's as soon as it crosses 140W.