WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#381 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:23 am

http://www.accuweather.com

As of Friday night, EDT, the center of Typhoon Halong is located about 325 miles to the south of Iwakuni, Japan. The storm is tracking towards the north at about 8 mph with top sustained winds of 80 mph. Heavy rain in southern Japan from Halong has lead to more than 8 inches in the past 24 hours at Tokushima.
Halong is forecast to track northward during the next 24 hours, veering somewhat to the northeast as the eye wall brushes eastern Kyushu, then making landfall in Shikoku Saturday evening or night, local time. Halong will then cross southern Honshu, specifically the Chuguku Region, Saturday night into early Sunday. Thereafter, it will move into the Sea of Japan, likely as a tropical storm.
Landfall on the Japan mainland will be on the island of Shikoku, southwest of Osaka. Very heavy rain will fall across most of southern Japan with 6-10 inches likely across a large portion of the region. In a few parts of Shikoku, up to 20 inches of rain can fall. This is the same area that got 30+ inches of rain barely a week ago. As a result, major flooding is expected along with the significant threat for mudslides.
Wind gusts will be near 90 mph along the coast of southern Japan. Across inland areas and southern Honshu gusts will be in the 60- to 80-mph range. This will cause widespread power outages and some structural damage. Winds will also push a 4- to 8-foot storm surge onto southern and southeastern facing coasts.
In central Japan, including greater Tokyo, localized heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will be possible, most will see between 1 and 3 inches of rain and gusts to 50 mph.
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Equilibrium

#382 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 09, 2014 2:20 am

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 AUG 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 31:18:01 N Lon : 132:30:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 963.0mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.8 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -54.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


2014AUG09 030000 3.4 978.4 53.0 3.3 3.6 5.1 0.5T/hour ON OFF -8.94 -54.50 EYE 26 IR 5.6 30.95 -132.58 COMBO MTSAT2 38.5
2014AUG09 033000 3.5 977.2 55.0 3.5 5.1 5.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -8.52 -55.03 EYE 23 IR 5.6 31.15 -132.61 COMBO MTSAT2 38.7
2014AUG09 040000 3.9 972.5 63.0 3.9 5.0 5.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -14.45 -55.53 EYE 23 IR 5.6 31.03 -132.52 SPRL MTSAT2 38.6
2014AUG09 043000 4.2 968.0 69.8 4.2 4.9 4.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -17.67 -54.72 EYE -99 IR 5.6 31.23 -132.44 SPRL MTSAT2 38.8
2014AUG09 051500 4.5 963.0 77.0 4.5 4.8 5.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -10.21 -55.34 EYE 27 IR 5.6 31.25 -132.49 COMBO MTSAT2 38.8
2014AUG09 053000 4.5 963.0 77.0 4.5 4.8 5.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -8.52 -54.43 EYE



no sign of weakening atm its getting even stronger again.
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Equilibrium

#383 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:42 am

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 AUG 2014 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 31:45:37 N Lon : 132:38:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 955.2mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.9 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 155km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#384 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 7:56 am

Image

11W HALONG 140809 1200 32.4N 132.9E WPAC 60 978

Downgraded to a Tropical Storm...and southeast of Okino-shima...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#385 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 8:27 am

Image

JMA - 65 knots
JTWC - 60 knots

Little bit outdated but here it is...

As of Saturday morning, EDT, the center of Halong is located about 250 miles to the south of Japan. The storm is tracking towards the north at about 9 mph with top sustained winds of 80 mph. Heavy rain in southern Japan from Halong has led to more than 12 inches in the past 24 hours at in Hakusan.
Halong is forecast to track northward during the next 24 hours, veering somewhat to the northeast as the eye wall brushes eastern Kyushu, then making landfall in Shikoku on Saturday evening or night, local time. Halong will then cross southern Honshu, specifically the Chugoku Region, on Saturday night into early Sunday. Thereafter, it will move into the Sea of Japan, likely as a tropical storm.
Landfall on the Japan mainland will be on the island of Shikoku, southwest of Osaka. Very heavy rain will fall across most of southern Japan with 10-15 inches likely across a portion of the region. In a few parts of Shikoku, up to 20 inches of rain or more can fall. This is the same area that got 40+ inches of rain barely a week ago. As a result, major flooding is expected along with the significant threat for mudslides.
Wind gusts will be near 90 mph along the coast of southern Japan. Across inland areas and southern Honshu gusts will be in the 60- to 80-mph range. This will cause widespread power outages and some structural damage. Winds will also push a 4- to 8-foot storm surge onto southern and southeastern-facing coasts.
In central Japan, including greater Tokyo, localized heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will be possible, most will have between 1 and 3 inches of rain and gusts to 50 mph.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#386 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 8:27 am

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#387 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Aug 09, 2014 10:20 am

Shimizu recorded a pressure reading of 960.3hPa with 8.2m/s E wind (sustained). meanwhile, Muroto-Misaki (northeast of eye) recorded 29.0m/s E wind (sustained).

This may still be a typhoon at 65kt and a minimum pressure of 956hPa, imo; closer to JMA than with JTWCs.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#388 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 10:28 am

Image

Looks like the eye is about to move onshore...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#389 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:17 am

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/west-pacific

12 inches in Hakusan over the past 24 hours and 20 inches expected for shikoku which got over +40 inches a week ago so major flooding likely...

Halong Impacting Southern Japan

As of late Saturday morning EDT, Halong had weaken into a tropical storm and was located approximately 140 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan, or just about to make landfall over southern Japan. The storm is tracking toward the north at about 12 mph with top sustained winds of 70 mph. Heavy rain in southern Japan from Halong has led to more than 12 inches in the past 24 hours at in Hakusan.
Halong is forecast to track northward during the next 24 hours, moving over Shikoku Saturday evening, local time. Halong will then cross southern Honshu, specifically the Chugoku Region, Saturday night into early Sunday. Thereafter, it will move into the Sea of Japan.
Landfall on the Japan mainland will be on the island of Shikoku, southwest of Osaka. Very heavy rain will fall across most of southern Japan with 10-15 inches likely across a portion of the region. In a few parts of Shikoku, up to 20 inches of rain or more can fall. This is the same area that got 40-plus inches of rain barely a week ago. As a result, major flooding is expected along with the significant threat for mudslides.
Wind gusts will be near 85-90 mph along the coast of southern Japan. Across inland areas and southern Honshu gusts will be in the 60- to 80-mph range. This will cause widespread power outages and some structural damage. Winds will also push a 4- to 8-foot storm surge onto southern and southeastern-facing coasts.
In central Japan, including greater Tokyo, localized heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will be possible, most will have between 1 and 3 inches of rain and gusts to 50 mph.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#390 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:25 am

Image

Looks like the eyewall went over Tosashimizu final landfall is projected to be south of Susaki...

Tropical storm sustained winds over a large area...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#391 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:32 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2754

Rare Emergency Warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan

Rare emergency warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan
In the Western Pacific, slow-moving Tropical Storm Halong weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday, but is dumping dangerous heavy rains into Southern Japan. A rare "emergency weather warning" (tokubetsu keihō) for the Mie Prefecture was issued on Saturday by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Hakusan in the Mie Prefecture had nearly 17 inches of rain on Saturday, breaking its all-time 24-hour rainfall record set just last year in Typhoon Man-yi. The Sukumo observation site in Kōchi prefecture set an all-time calendar-day record rainfall today of 327.5 mm (12.89 inches) with records dating back to 1943. Rainfall rates have been 1 to 2 inches pre hour across most of Kōchi Prefecture on Saturday. As of 9 pm JST Saturday, the center of Halong was 60 km (35 mi) south of Cape Ashizuri, Kōchi Prefecture; the Shimizu observation site, 5 miles northwest of that cape, clocked an 83-mph gust at 9:23pm JST (8:23am US EDT). That's the highest gust anywhere in Japan (including the smaller southern islands) so far Saturday their time. Farther east, Cape Muroto clocked a sustained wind of 27.0 m/s (60 mph) at 9:58pm JST (8:58am US EDT), the top sustained wind for all of Japan today. Source: JMA (thanks to TWC's Nick Wiltgen for these stats.) Satellite loops show that Halong is a very large system, and the rains from this massive, slow-moving storm are going to cause serious flooding problems in Japan.
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#392 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:55 pm

How is JT saying this is a TS when there are 10 min sustained winds of typhoon force?

Also, how in the world are they saying 978mb. There are OBS indicating pressures in the 960s

we need a face palm emoticon, or better yet, a double face palm
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#393 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:59 pm

Alyono wrote:How is JT saying this is a TS when there are 10 min sustained winds of typhoon force?

Also, how in the world are they saying 978mb. There are OBS indicating pressures in the 960s

we need a face palm emoticon, or better yet, a double face palm



Kinda weird they downgraded this to a TS despite dvorak estimates of 4.0 from PGTW and KNES and ADT of 4.6, near 80 knots...

It's only a 5 knot difference though from JMA but still...

Any link to that 10 min sustained winds of typhoon winds and 960's?
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#394 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:04 pm

I saw the wind obs on our internal data feed at the office
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#395 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:05 pm

Eye is open to the southwest and should make landfall within the next 6 hours...
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#396 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:05 pm

Murotomisaki, Japan had that ob
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#397 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:25 pm

Image

Murotomisaki obs, Are these sustained or gust?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#398 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:27 pm

Image

:eek:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#399 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:39 pm

Image

A city with more than 340,000 , Kochi, will feel the brunt of halong's northeastern quadrant, the most dangerous...just terrible...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#400 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:52 pm

JTWC - 60 knots

JMA - 65 knots...
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