EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

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#281 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:16 pm

somethingfunny wrote:So, uh... is there even a remote possibility that Karina ends up sliding around Marie's southern periphery without being absorbed? It feels like this little system will never go away. :lol:


I guess. After all it was suppose to be absorbed by Lowell. You saw how that turned out.
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#282 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:27 pm

EP, 11, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1309W, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1007, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,
EP, 11, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1309W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1007, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,
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#283 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 4:40 pm

somethingfunny wrote:So, uh... is there even a remote possibility that Karina ends up sliding around Marie's southern periphery without being absorbed? It feels like this little system will never go away. :lol:


It would be cool if it lasted the same amount of length as 2012's Nadine. It would complete my analogy on it :)
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#284 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:25 pm

P, 11, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1297W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 60, 60, 50, 1007, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#285 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:44 pm

This was absolutely gruesome.

Image

Rest in peace, Karina.
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#286 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Karina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the
remaining deep convection located about 90 miles west-northwest
of the exposed center of circulation. The initial intensity is
lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
intensity estimation. Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a
result of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in
continued weakening to a depression in 12 hours. The cyclone is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and
ultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in
3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the
diminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical
cyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the
east-southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered
around the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie. The
official NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour
period, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#287 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:49 pm

Karina is being split apart and devoured by Lowell and Marie.

Image
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#288 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:19 pm

Man, this storm is insane. Just overshadowed by Julio (early on) and Marie (later on) and Lowell (in the middle).
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#289 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:40 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing
Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the
southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity
numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT,
SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical
depression. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters,
hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low
in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become
absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about
two days. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the
HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the
previous advisory.

With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this
morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery. Karina
is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt. The cyclone will be
advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of
Karina occurs. The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE
multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south
of the previous official prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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#290 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:49 am

Karina is like Cinderella, Marie is the evil stepsister
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#291 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:54 pm

Still fighting! Karina reminds me of Genevieve in this state.

Image
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#292 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:01 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 252036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing
Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues
in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from
the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30
kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system
heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air
should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.
Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation
of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours. The intensity forecast
is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and
is the same as that from the previous advisory.

The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is
moving toward the east at 5 kt. This motion is somewhat unexpected
as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast
heading today. The cyclone will be advected around the large
circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed. The track forecast,
based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the
previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction
because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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#293 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:13 pm

I'm not sure if this loop is static or hotlinked but it's an amazing loop of Karina's downfall from sunup to sundown yesterday:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... _184_X.gif
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#294 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie continues to strongly
shear Karina, though a persistent area of deep convection continues
in the western quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low in about 12 hours, and then be absorbed into
the much larger Marie in 24-36 hours.

The initial motion is 095/4. A general east-southeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone
is absorbed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.9N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#295 Postby Iune » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:20 pm

As far as I can remember, this seems to be the shortest discussion in a long while (at least for a non-last advisory discussion).
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#296 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:23 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:As far as I can remember, this seems to be the shortest discussion in a long while (at least for a non-last advisory discussion).


You should see how short some of these 90s discussions were.
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#297 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:56 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be
considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical
wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial
ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due
to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in
24 hours or so.

The initial motion is 100/3. The cyclone is embedded in westerly
flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone
is absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#298 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:03 am

I can't believe she's still holding on!
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#299 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:18 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Karina has weakened overnight and has lost any associated deep
convection. Although deep convection could re-develop today,
increasing easterly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane
Marie should make it difficult for any new convective growth to
persist. Within 24 hours, the cyclone is expected to degenerate
into a trough well south of Marie.

The initial motion estimate is slowly southeastward or 135/02.
The cyclone is expected to orbit around the southern portion of the
large circulation of Hurricane Marie during the next 12 to 24 hours
until absorption.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.6N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#300 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:24 am

Image

The NHC is giving Karina the benefit of the doubt for today out of respect for her longevity. ;)
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