ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#421 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:53 am

Might have to adjust the forecast cone a little more north.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:06 am

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

Shear has dropped dramatically so storms now firing over the center, making it appear more north. In my opinion.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:51 am

First visible image of the day (I brightened it for clarity). Low level banding confirming center is under the recent deep convection:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#424 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:00 am

It might be pretty close to the coast once the HH's get in there.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

#425 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:05 am

The center should remain over the BOC waters for another 12-16 hours. NHC predicts landfall approximately around 1AM on Wednesday.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#426 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:26 am

Looks like it is headed to Mexico well south of Texas. Impressive blowup of convection that is for sure. The BOC continues to be a breading ground for cyclones year after year as of late.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#427 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:29 am

It's clearly moving faster than forecast. It may be at the NHC's 24-hr forecast point in a few hours. Unless it slows down soon it may be inland in 6 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#428 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:36 am

Looks like the center is just outside the range of the long range radar out of Brownsville.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/tx/brownsville/bro/?lat=25.98174095&lon=-97.53533936&label=Brownsville%2c%20TX
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#429 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:38 am

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#430 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:12 am

Convection sheared to the SE.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#431 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:18 am

By the look of things Dolly will be making landfall by this afternoon unless a new LLC reforms further south closer to the convection and MLC.
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:57 am

From the recent discussion:

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.


Looks like the anticipated slow down will occur after landfall now. That's going to mean a lot of rain for that area and potential flash floods/landslides. Here's a look at the topography of Mexico:

Image
0 likes   

greg_kfdm_tv
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 110
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 8:50 pm
Location: Beaumont, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#433 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:44 am

High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#434 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:52 am

Goodbye Dolly?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#435 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:08 am

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.


I see the same thing, Greg. The Euro has been forecasting landfall this afternoon for the last 3-4 days (vs. the GFS on Wednesday or later). It's 60 miles from land as of 30 minutes ago. I can see evidence that the core is tilted toward the SSE. There appears to be a MLC within the convection to the SSE of the center. There are 2-3 outflow boundaries emanating northward as well - not a sign of strengthening.
0 likes   

User avatar
baytownwx
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:38 am

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#436 Postby baytownwx » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:26 am

Just to add a visual to what wxman stated:
Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

greg_kfdm_tv
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 110
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 8:50 pm
Location: Beaumont, Texas
Contact:

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#437 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:28 am

Chris.....I have the center now only about 45-50 miles from the coast. Won't be long before Dolly moves inland....just a rainmaker for northeast Mexico.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#438 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:41 am

It appears Dolly will be the first storm of the season that will not make it to hurricane strength.

Edit: Not that this was surprising or anything :lol:
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2389
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#439 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:48 am

potential landfall near 24N and 98W would be my best estimate. The LLC really did book it WNW while the MLC is lagging behind. I think the GFS was trying to develop a small ridge over Mexico, slowing Dolly down and shunting it NW a bit just offshore causing the lapse in landfall timing.
Last edited by USTropics on Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#440 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:48 am

:uarrow:

Actually, with the shear, it barely made tropical storm strength.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests