EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#261 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:52 pm

This should be a major...dvorak image is convincing to me

Image

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#262 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:53 pm

ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re:

#263 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:58 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.

ADT likes to do that for every storm in the process of clearing out an eye
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#264 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:00 pm

Which is what it is doing, trying to clear it out.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#265 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:07 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.


That eye/center sure warmed pretty quick on ADT


014SEP05 213000 4.6 972.7 79.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -66.36 -72.23 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.65 112.24 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 220000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.06 -71.19 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.69 112.28 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 223000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -67.56 -70.18 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.74 112.33 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 230000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -66.36 -69.93 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.78 112.38 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 233000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -55.86 -69.92 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.82 112.44 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 000000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.8 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -43.06 -70.81 EYE -99 IR 16.1 23.86 112.50 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 003000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.4 4.7 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -50.76 -71.23 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.90 112.56 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 010000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.6 5.9 6.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -53.56 -72.12 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.99 112.68 SPRL GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 013000 4.8 968.6 84.8 4.8 5.9 6.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -41.26 -72.53 EYE -99 IR 6.4 24.03 112.74 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 020000 5.2 961.0 94.8 5.2 5.9 6.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -19.13 -72.50 EYE/P -99 IR 6.4 24.07 112.81 SPRL GOES15 37.5
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 712
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

#266 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:09 pm

Oh my god! this storm might actually bring in some rain to California
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#267 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:11 pm

Well this storm is catching me off guard. Though this hurricane peaked yesterday. Can he become a major?
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#268 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:16 pm

Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#269 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:29 pm

It's at the temporary weakening stage now that the pinhole eye is gone according to ADt. Thyey should rise again early tomorrow.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 24:06:49 N Lon : 112:48:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#270 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:30 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.


Raymond 13 wasn't that unexpected RI wise. Norbert 14 was. You are probably thinking this because both are small.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#271 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:44 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 24:09:00 N Lon : 112:51:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.2mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#272 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:48 pm

Looks 105-110kt to me. May attain Category 4 intensity if the eye continues to warm.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#273 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:49 pm

At this point I believe Cat.4 is a real possibility

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#274 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:57 pm

I'd go with 110 knts now.

This thing seems likely to register 6.0 on the Dvorak. Could be higher, but constraints will limit it to .5 per 6 hours from here. We are highly unlikely to get a 7.0 due to that reason alone.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#275 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:09 pm

Going full out. Has to be at least a major hurricane.

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#276 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:09 pm

Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#277 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:10 pm

Ill be shocked if this is not 100 knts at 6z.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#278 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:11 pm

Given the much higher initial intensity, they would likely have to put out a Special Advisory to revise the forecast if they believe the ADT is accurate.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#279 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.


Unless they want to suddenly revise the warnings (they IMO should), there's no need, but SMN does not like messing with the warnings late at night.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#280 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.

Agreed. Last time I called for a special Advisory, it didn't pan out. Maybe this time it will be warranted for due to its proximity to land.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests