ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#181 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:00 pm

In late October, you can't always rely on normal rules for tracks. Storms at this time of year tend to be more likely to get caught in troughs or left behind and move erratically due to displaced ridges. This looks like one of those weird ones.

I'm leaning towards a storm starting east but the building ridge gets it buried in the Caribbean.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#182 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:09 pm

October in the Caribbean is always good for something weird.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#183 Postby blp » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:13 pm

Here are the 12z Euro Ensembles.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#184 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:19 pm

blp wrote:Well the UKmet is still onboard south of Cuba with lots od moisture further North.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/w9cxz7.jpg


That's the 00Z run from today, not the 12Z. I can't seem to find the 12Z anywhere.
0 likes   

User avatar
xcool22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Age: 42
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:06 pm
Location: slidell la
Contact:

#185 Postby xcool22 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:20 pm

FL is safe take it with a grain of salt.lol
0 likes   
SCOTT

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#186 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:23 pm

Probably waiting till after the Yucatan landfall to declare it.
Good low level circulation but the shear is pretty strong.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#187 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:24 pm

gfs want say i like making monster hurr i am crying like wolf at night can you hear me howl
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#188 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:29 pm

so we say 93l will history by sat as front come over kill it for good _________________
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
WPBWeather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm

Re:

#189 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:44 pm

spiral wrote:Image

Image
http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=24.24456&lon ... roj=900913
:uarrow: EC high-res is sticking solid with a weak low that never gets cranking due to the close proximity to land and interaction with the trough and appears to just wash out as it moves to the N. Interesting to follow but those are the facts.


Well, not all the facts. These are lagging indicators--and only one data source. You are too pessimistic.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#190 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:57 pm

One other thing to keep in mind is that the global models are initializing with a 1004-1006MB or so low in the BOC but it is lower than that, around 1000MB. The 12Z ECMWF was 5MB too high on it's initialization.

Of course the ECMWF is also showing a very deep surge of continental air into the NW Caribbean next week so it wouldn't matter anyway but it overstated the deepness of the surge into the Gulf this week.

It's possible the ECMWF is right no doubt but I am going with the 50% chance of cyclone formation in the NW Caribbean next week, like the NHC has it now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re:

#191 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:16 pm

spiral wrote:EC high-res is sticking solid with a weak low that never gets cranking due to the close proximity to land and interaction with the trough and appears to just wash out as it moves to the N. Interesting to follow but those are the facts.


ECMWF is not the end all, be all.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#192 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:59 pm

00z GFS is spinning up the Caribbean low again and appears to really start to get it going around 100 hours from now, just north of Honduras.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#193 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:03 pm

At 120 Hours, coming together and barely moving just north of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#194 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:10 pm

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

SeGaBob

#195 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:11 pm

I agree with the people on pages 9 and 10... so tired of the "until the Euro shows it I won't believe it" mess or "King Euro" and the pointless poll in the winter thread about it too. :grr: It may be right a lot but NO model is perfect. :wink:
Last edited by SeGaBob on Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#196 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:14 pm

Headed North towards western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel at 150 Hours...

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#197 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:30 pm

And at 228 hours for a Halloween surprise...Hello Big Bend!!! Of course at this range we are in model fantasy land. I think the thing to take from this run is that the GFS is still spinning up something in the Caribbean about 100 hours from now and then bringing it North over the course of the next week. Timing and strength of the troughs will be key if something actually does form. Then again, nothing may form and the GFS may be up to its old convective feedback issues again. We should know by this weekend.

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#198 Postby N2FSU » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:33 pm

Quite the shift for the 00Z GFS. It will of course change countless times over the coming days, if anything even develops.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#199 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:48 pm

gfs not giving up on hurr
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4391
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#200 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:31 am

Image

06 GFS Landfall just south of Tampa..180hrs. Seemingly strong cane.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests