CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#501 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:59 pm

Right out there in the Pacific.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#502 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

ANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT
IMAGES HAVE ALSO SHOWN TRANSIENT WARM SPOTS APPEARING IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. AN SSMIS PASS FROM 1912 UTC INDICATED AN
EYEWALL-LIKE STRUCTURE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER MICROWAVE
PASSES FROM 1812 AND 1557 UTC SHOWED THIS FEATURE TO BE A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES
CAME IN AT 45 KT/35 KT/30 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. CIMSS SATCON WAS 49
KT WITH THE AMSU COMPONENT INDICATING 58 KT. GIVEN THE MICROWAVE
STRUCTURE FROM THE MOST RECENT PASSES AND THE OCCASIONAL WARM
SPOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SATCON AND AMSU
ESTIMATES AND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

THE INTIAL MOTION IS 020/11 KT AS ANA MOVES BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS A FASTER MOVEMENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND SIGNALS THE START OF AN EXPECTED
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RATHER
TIGHTLY PACKED...EVEN BEYOND DAY 3 WHEN ANA TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
NUDGE TO ALIGN IT CLOSER TO THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AS ANA HEADS TOWARD
THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ANA WILL BE UNDER MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRANSITING MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MAINTENANCE OF STRONG
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITIES...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...ANA SHOULD BEGIN AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ALONG A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE IT OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.
THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS IS LARGELY BASED ON
NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW
WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT 120
HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 29.7N 169.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.5N 167.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 34.5N 163.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 38.4N 157.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 42.9N 148.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z 47.9N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z 50.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#503 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:57 pm

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may regain hurricane intensity
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#504 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:15 pm

If this crosses 140W and is still tropical, control goes back to the NHC? Has there ever been a CPAC-EPAC reverse crossover?
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#505 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:46 pm

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probably at hurricane intensity
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#506 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:49 pm

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#507 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:51 pm

Latest

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#508 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:51 pm

The satellite imagery sure looks looks like a discernable eye has popped out. I would be definitely inclined to think this is a hurricane again.
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#509 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:59 pm

Ana pulling a Julio it seems.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#510 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:44 pm

00z Best Track up to Hurricane.

CP, 02, 2014102500, , BEST, 0, 302N, 1685W, 65, 988, HU
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#511 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:45 pm

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Ana continues to become better organized
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#512 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:47 pm

I'd go with about 75 kt right now.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Hurricane

#513 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:42 pm

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE STRUCTURE OF ANA HAS IMPROVED TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYE AROUND 2200 UTC. THIS MAY BE ANA/S BEST EYE THROUGH ITS LIFE
CYCLE THUS FAR. EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED INTACT. DVORAK FIXES CAME IN
WITH 65 KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...WITH CONSTRAINTS BROKEN BY ALL
THREE. GIVEN THIS EYE DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN A
ONE-IMAGE TRANSIENT FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KT.

ANA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...MOVING AT 040/20 KT
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
GROUPED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN POSITIONS.
THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH THE 48 THROUGH 96 HOUR POINTS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WHICH USED A BLEND OF THE
UKMET...GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK NEAR ANA...THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION BUT HOLDS ANA AT A MINIMAL HURRICANE LEVEL OF 65 KT
FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS DURING WHICH TIME ANA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 31.0N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 33.1N 165.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 36.7N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 40.9N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 45.2N 144.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 49.4N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 51.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#514 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:51 pm

Ana is one of ~8 hurricanes in the EPAC above 30N.
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Re:

#515 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Ana is one of ~8 hurricanes in the EPAC above 30N.


Of those 8, how many actually intensified to hurricane status above 30N? We're having a discussion about this in the EPAC FB group right now.
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Re: Re:

#516 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:34 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Ana is one of ~8 hurricanes in the EPAC above 30N.


Of those 8, how many actually intensified to hurricane status above 30N? We're having a discussion about this in the EPAC FB group right now.


I don't use FB. Off the top of my head, I can think of the 75 Pacific Northwest and Julio 14.
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Re: Re:

#517 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Ana is one of ~8 hurricanes in the EPAC above 30N.


Of those 8, how many actually intensified to hurricane status above 30N? We're having a discussion about this in the EPAC FB group right now.


I don't use FB. Off the top of my head, I can think of the 75 Pacific Northwest and Julio 14.



Julio missed by less than a degree (29.4N). The '75 system is pretty wild....sort of the Pacific's version of "The Perfect Storm" - instead of Hurricane Grace it was Ilsa that was ingested and formed a new hurricane.

Trying to find some track info about a system from 1957 that may be another one.

edit: Hurricane Two from 1957 attained hurricane status at 30.6N 152.0W
The unnamed 1975 Hurricane attained hurricane status at 40.0N, 156.0W
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Re: Re:

#518 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:11 am

AJC3 wrote:
edit: Hurricane Two from 1957 attained hurricane status at 30.6N 152.0W
The unnamed 1975 Hurricane attained hurricane status at 40.0N, 156.0W


Meh, 1957 was pre-reliable record era.
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Re: Re:

#519 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:25 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
edit: Hurricane Two from 1957 attained hurricane status at 30.6N 152.0W
The unnamed 1975 Hurricane attained hurricane status at 40.0N, 156.0W


Meh, 1957 was pre-reliable record era.


Well, of course it is. It's in the BT database as such and that's what we have to go on. One other thing to consider is that 1957 fits the pattern in that it was a moderate warm ENSO phase, which would lend itself to enhanced CPAC TC activity, and the potential for higher latitude intensification.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Hurricane

#520 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:07 am

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE EYE OF HURRICANE ANA REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...ALL OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE 4.0/65
KT. THE MOST RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES FOR
ANA FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ARE 5 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ANA CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/21 KT THIS EVENING.
THIS FORWARD MOTION IS DUE TO THE DEEP STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A
MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OF ANA. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...OR TVCN...CONTINUES TO BE THE
PREFERRED TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 36
HOURS HAS ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NOTE THAT
THE 36 TO 96 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS WERE SUPPLIED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...OR OPC.

IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANA IS
MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS
FORECAST TRACK. THESE DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A
TOLL ON THE MAINTENANCE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...OR ICON...SHOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. WE ARE FORECASTING
ANA TO WEAKEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST INPUT FROM OPC...ANA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS...WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND WIND RADII STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING ARE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 32.4N 165.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 35.0N 162.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 39.0N 156.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 43.9N 148.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z 47.0N 142.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 48.8N 139.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0600Z 54.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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