ATL: Ex NINE
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- gatorcane
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Hammy I am not seeing anything north of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Center looks inland now to me and heading generally west. I just saw the 12Z UKMET run and it turns it more WNW within the next 12-24 hours and gets it back over water briefly before going into Belize. NHC seems to be taking a blend of the GFS ensembles which take it SW. I don't see it moving that way.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I see the NHC dropped it back down to 14.6. It does look West when you straighten it out. Following the Euro right now. I think the only chance is the northerly vort getting going as the main vort slowly dissipates. Problem is the northern vort is not at the surface and will take time.
Last edited by blp on Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rgb-long.html
I still see something to the north skirting the coast. At or perhaps just south of 15.4/83.5, and the convection is blowing up and moving east, well to the north of where the official position is.
Follow the deepest convection and what appears to be the LLC or at least the northern end of it. I still believe the center is north of the official position, and likely just offshore. Felix 2007 once inland could be an example that they tracked the MLC west after weakening, but post-analysis showed the center actually moved back offshore and into Belize.
I still see something to the north skirting the coast. At or perhaps just south of 15.4/83.5, and the convection is blowing up and moving east, well to the north of where the official position is.
Follow the deepest convection and what appears to be the LLC or at least the northern end of it. I still believe the center is north of the official position, and likely just offshore. Felix 2007 once inland could be an example that they tracked the MLC west after weakening, but post-analysis showed the center actually moved back offshore and into Belize.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:it look other low forming to north of other
This is pretty crazy stuff. I hate to say it, but I also see some kind of change in the circulation where the center may be reforming to the north or shifting north in a complex circulation. I'm just going to watch it and try to keep quiet for now like I did on Friday and Saturday. But if this has any more tricks up its sleeve the NHC will be pulling their hair out lol.
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- gatorcane
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There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.
Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.
Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.
Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?
Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.
Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.
Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.
Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.
Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.
Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?
that good question i seen storms growing that area
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- weatherwindow
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel..."Never ignore the black IR"
Serious convection offshore...respectable towers north of the eastern Honduran coast...we wait and see
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Serious convection offshore...respectable towers north of the eastern Honduran coast...we wait and see
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.
Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.
Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.
Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?
Something very unusual is going on there. Definitely needs to be watched.
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- Annie Oakley
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Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Puerto Lempira now reporting SW wind at 20kts, which is consistent with movement and where I thought the center was at earlier. Probably inland now, still north of official position. It would be nice if there was a radar available from the area.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Intersting microwave pass early today would suggest center was above 15N then.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
blp wrote:Intersting microwave pass early today would suggest center was above 15N.
That effectively confirms that was the LLC I was seeing on satellite earlier.
for comparison.
NHC discussion tonight as well as the next set of ASCAT passes will be interesting to see.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
That position cannot be correct. Just look at the microwave image blp posted. If the system was not stacked then you could say the surface low could be south of where the microwave shows it, but there were no indications from the other data that the center was not upright. So the center has to be north of 15 degrees north.
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Re:
Annie Oakley wrote:Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al
Hi Annie! Got it now?
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:That position cannot be correct. Just look at the microwave image blp posted. If the system was not stacked then you could say the surface low could be south of where the microwave shows it, but there were no indications from the other data that the center was not upright. So the center has to be north of 15 degrees north.
If anything, it may be tilted southward hence why I think the (old) MLC is being tracked at the moment, while it seems to be restacking itself at the moment.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion
maybe new low taking over one want over land?
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