WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

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RL3AO
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#121 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:39 am

Well were seeing most of the eye since its measuring a +13C temp. The eyewall will be very cold (in the -70 to -85C range). Its because of the angle that we may not be seeing the absolute warmest temp in the eyewall which might be in the +16 to +20C range.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#122 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:41 am

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#123 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:45 am

I'm interested to see how far north it can keep these dark grey cloud tops on the BD curve. Already at 20N...the tropopause will only continue to get lower.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#124 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:47 am

2014NOV02 143200 7.7 897.0 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.47 -82.64 EYE 15 IR N/A 17.59 -132.34 COMBO MTSAT2 25.2
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#125 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:52 am

from PAGASA
WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TYPHOON “PAENG”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 NOVEMBER 2014
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)
TYPHOON “PAENG” HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
Location of
eye/center:
At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “PAENG”
was located based on all available data at 1,120 km
East of Tuguegarao City (17.5°N, 132.3
°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the
center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: Forecast to move North at 13 kph.
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#126 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:52 am

It's not surprising that Nuri has been able to attain such intensity (I'd estimate 165-170kt) with such an impressive upper-air pattern.

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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:03 am

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A 10-NM EYE. A 020906Z WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. STY 20W HAS BEEN RAISED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. STY 20W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY NURI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BEGINNING A
SLOW AND WIDE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVE. DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS, STY 20W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
BEYOND TAU 36, EXPECT LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, WITH DYNAMIC MODELS HANDLING
THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE REDEVELOPING STR WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS STY NURI ACCELERATES EAST OF JAPAN,
WEAKENING ALONG ITS TRACK.//
NNNN
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#128 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:21 pm

I'd go with 160 or 165 kt now. Almost, but not quite, a T8.0 there. I don't know what the JTWC reasoning for 130 is...no one has anything close to a T6.5 unless they are constrained (and this is a case where any constraints must be broken - the ADT is probably the best friend now).
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#129 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:27 pm

Should be at least 150kt for the next JTWC advisory

TPPN10 PGTW 021816

A. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI)

B. 02/1732Z

C. 17.7N

D. 132.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT. BROKE THE
CONSTRAINTS OF +2.0 TNO CHANGE OVER 18HRS, +2.5 TNO CHANGE OVER
24HRS, AND MET +/- 1.0 TNO OF MET DUE TO SYSTEMS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#130 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:40 pm

155kt

WP, 20, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1323E, 155, 907, ST, 34, NEQ, 170, 160, 140, 150, 1004, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, NURI, D,

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#131 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:09 pm

Nuri looks to have peaked in intensity a few hours ago. The CDG is beginning to erode on satellite now. I suspect the system may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle because the eye has gotten so small, but there hasn't been any microwave passes lately to confirm this.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#132 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:33 pm

A temporary warming of cloud tops doesn't necessary corresponds to weakening. 17z AMSU pass indicates no signs of ERC in near term

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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#133 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:39 pm

18z JTWC forecast brings the intensity up to 170kt in 12 hours....certainly unrealistic

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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#134 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:40 pm

JTWC giving a peak intensity of 170 Kts. Looks good to.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#135 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:41 pm

Image

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#136 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:08 pm

Satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS ADT are down a little from earlier (warmer central convection), but Nuri remains very powerful.

2014NOV02 200000 7.5 900.3 155.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 9.98 -79.65 EYE 18 IR 42.9 18.15 -132.43 COMBO MTSAT2 25.7

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#137 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:35 pm

We should just be fortunate this won't affect anyone.
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#138 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:25 pm

170 knots was Haiyan's intensity from the JTWC right? Doubt Nuri will repeat that intensity as that is almost a once in a lifetime occurrence. Still very impressive however.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#139 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:43 pm

Image

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#140 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:54 pm

Just saw this. :double: WOW! CIMSS holding at 155 knots now with CI# at 7.5 and Final T# = 7.2
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