EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

What does that graph mean then? The ATCF has it at 90/973 unless I am missing something.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

...anyways, it looks like the eye is about to make reappearance after becoming obscured by deep convection.

[supercane4867]

Latest microwave

[Yellow Evan]

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ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


NNNN

[Iune]

Would that mean the major hurricane record would be broken, if this forecast verifies?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Vance has displayed a pinhole eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops
both in microwave imagery and sporadically in visible/infrared
imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with a
2124Z AMSU objective analysis from CIMSS indicates an intensity of
90 kt. The combination of very low vertical shear, quite moist and
unstable thermodynamics, warm SSTs, and large upper-level divergence
have contributed toward Vance's rapid intensification during the
last 24 hours, during which time the maximum winds have doubled.
Vince has about 12 hours of conducive conditions remaining before a
high amplitude upper- to mid-level trough currently west of Baja
California begins to adversely affect the tropical cyclone. Vertical
shear should quickly ramp up while the moisture, convective
instability, and upper-level divergence drop during the next two
days. Vance is predicted to peak in intensity shortly followed by
rapid weakening, most similar to the LGEM and SHIPS statistical
models during the next 24 hours and to the IVCN multi-model
consensus thereafter. This forecast is higher than that in the
previous advisory due to the stronger initial intensity, but lower
at days 2 and 3.

Vance is moving 310 degrees at 15 kt, as it is being advected around
the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast. As the
aforementioned trough digs southward, Vance should undergo
recurvature beginning in about a day, at the very low latitude of
about 18 North. The tropical cyclone should then turn toward the
north-northeast on Tuesday and start approaching southwestern
Mexico. However, the shear should become so severe that the
tropical cyclone is likely to decouple in about three days with the
remnant low not quite reaching the coast. The NHC official track
prediction is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus, and is
faster than the previous advisory but not as far northeast as the
GFS-ECMWF combination. An alternative scenario is that Vance
reaches the southwestern Mexican coast as a tropical storm in about
three days, as seen in the deterministic ECMWF model run. However,
given the quite hostile vertical shear conditions expected, and that
the ECMWF solution appears to be an outlier compared to its ensemble
members, this is not considered to be likely at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.7N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Yellow Evan]

Would that mean the major hurricane record would be broken, if this forecast verifies?

140 west, yes. To the dateline, the record might be tied.

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak does do poorly with tiny eyes, though, so the 90 kt is probably conservative.

[Iune]

Thanks

Also, I just realized that if one more hurricane forms during November, 2014 will get the record for the most hurricanes in the EPac.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks

Also, I just realized that if one more hurricane forms during November, 2014 will get the record for the most hurricanes in the EPac.

Correctly. It is currently tied right now.

[EquusStorm]

Having some real trouble clearing the eye out, but I suspect that it'll either reorganize and intensify before hitting the shear, or be re-analyzed as being more intense earlier than initially indicated.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye better clear out or the record will not be tied. It's as simple as that.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity,
with very cold-topped inner core convection. Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial
intensity is held at that value as well. Vance's upper-level
outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant,
suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already
beginning to increase. The window of opportunity for additional
strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates
the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in
24 hours. The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in
strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours,
and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus.
Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by
72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely
hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even
completely dissipate by that time.

There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12
kt. Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the
western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The cyclone is
then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. By the end of the
forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the
circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by
the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on
ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING
VERY SOON....


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 110.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.



HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Recent microwave images show that the inner core of Vance remains
vertically aligned, however, the outflow is becoming increasingly
restricted over the southwestern portion of the circulation due to
southwesterly shear. Vance has likely peaked in intensity and the
initial wind speed is held at 90 kt for this advisory, which is in
agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.
The vertical shear over Vance is forecast to dramatically increase
during the next 24 to 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model predicts
shear to increase to 37 kt in 24 hours, and to 54 kt in 48 hours.
These very hostile conditions should cause the hurricane to rapidly
weaken during the next couple of days, and Vance is forecast to
become a tropical depression in 48 hours. Although a 72-hour
forecast as a remnant low is indicated, it is highly possible that
this system will have dissipated by that time.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/10 kt. Vance
has started its much anticipated northward turn ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough. Vance should turn northward this
afternoon, and then recurve north-northeastward ahead of the trough
tomorrow. There continues to be some run-to-run inconsistencies in
the model guidance as to how vertically coherent Vance will remain
and how fast it will move north-northeastward. The GFS and ECMWF
now bring a weakening cyclone to the coast, meanwhile the HWRF and
UKMET show a much slower, and more erratic motion in a couple of
days. The updated NHC track has trended faster than the previous
advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus, however, the new
forecast is slower than the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants are likely to spread
northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United
States during the next several days. This is likely to produce
heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday
or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.3N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A bit of dry air got entrained into the inner core of Hurricane Vance overnight, but a recent microwave pass shows that the dry air has been mixed out. The outline of an eye is still evident on infrared imagery, but it remains cloud-filled. If Vance wants to become a major hurricane, it needs to do it soon, as wind shear will be increasing dramatically as the day progresses.

[supercane4867]

Not giving up

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 15:38:46 N Lon : 110:39:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.4 degrees

Expect raw ADT to be at 7.0 soon.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:52:39 N Lon : 110:49:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.6 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.4 degrees

[supercane4867]

TXPZ21 KNES 031822
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 03/1800Z

C. 16.0N

D. 110.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...ELONGATED LG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SALEMI