SPAC: LAM - Tropical Cyclone

[euro6208]

Wedge between two warm eddys...

Shear is low and convergence and divergence is good. I wouldn't be surprised if this reaches a major typhoon (cat 3) at landfall...

[mrbagyo]

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 11:00 am CST Wednesday 18 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 10:30 am CST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.2 degrees South, 137.0 degrees East , 125 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy Airport and 180 kilometres east northeast of Elcho Island .
Movement: west at 15 kilometres per hour .

12P LAM 150218 0000 11.2S 137.2E SHEM 60 978

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 12:18 am CST Wednesday 18 February 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 11:00 am CST:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.1 degrees South, 137.0 degrees East , 130 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy Airport and 180 kilometres northeast of Elcho Island .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves towards the west parallel to the coast before turning towards the southwest overnight.

[jaguarjace]

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 5:07 pm CST Wednesday 18 February 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South, 136.6 degrees East , 145 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy Airport and 155 kilometres northeast of Elcho Island .
Movement: west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cycone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves toward the west parallel to the coast before turning towards the southwest on Thursday.

12P LAM 150218 0600 11.1S 136.6E SHEM 65 974

[euro6208]

Cape Wessel had 10 min sustained winds of 66 knots gusting to 92 knots just 5 miles north of the center......

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 11:04 am CST Thursday 19 February 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 10:30 am CST:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.4 degrees South, 136.0 degrees East , 80 kilometres north northeast of Elcho Island and 125 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to track southwest, parallel to the Wessel Islands today and is expected to make landfall on
the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday or Friday morning. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday
as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

12P LAM 150219 0000 11.4S 135.9E SHEM 80 963

[euro6208]

How populated is this area?

[jaguarjace]

How populated is this area?

Maningrida - population of around 2,068 people.
Milingimbi - population of around 1,000 people.
Elcho Island - population of around 2,000 people.
Gapuwiyak - population of around 1,000 people.
Nhulunbuy - population of around 3,933 people.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 3:01 pm CST Thursday 19 February 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 2:30 pm CST:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 135.7 degrees East , 45 kilometres north northeast of Elcho Island and 135 kilometres west northwest of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest, parallel to the Wessel Islands and is expected to make landfall on the
mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday or Friday morning. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves
inland over Arnhem Land.

12P LAM 150219 0600 11.7S 135.7E SHEM 80 963

[euro6208]

Eyewall over Elcho Island and moving over the northernmost part of the Australian mainland...

[jaguarjace]

Now a Category 4.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 8:07 pm CST Thursday 19 February 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 7:30 pm CST:
Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 135.5 degrees East , 20 kilometres north northwest of Galiwinku and 145 kilometres west northwest of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest and is now impacting the coast near Elcho Island.
The cyclone is expected to continue to slowly move over the coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight tonight and during early Friday morning.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

[euro6208]

So a category 4 165 kph australian scale cyclone equals to 102.53 mph or 90 knots, a category 2 hurricane/typhoon on the SSHS...

Agreement with JTWC's 90 knots...

[euro6208]

12Z Best Track...Two major cyclones (SSHS) barreling towards Australia...

12P LAM 150219 1200 12.0S 135.4E SHEM 100 948

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 11:04 am CST Friday 20 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 10:30 am CST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.1 degrees South, 134.4 degrees East , 65 kilometres north of Bulman and 120 kilometres south southwest of Milingimbi .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Lam crossed the mainland coast midway between Milingimbi and Elcho Island at 2am this morning as a category 4 system.

The DESTRUCTIVE core of Tropical Cyclone Lam is now impacting inland areas of central Arnhem Land.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue moving southwest and weaken today as it moves further inland.

12P LAM 150220 0000 13.3S 134.5E SHEM 50 985

[CrazyC83]

Based on its less than perfect structure, I would say it was weaker than estimated unless there was a surface observation supporting high intensities. My guess at landfall was 85 kt (1-min).

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 4:48 pm CST Friday 20 February 2015.



Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lam at 4:30 pm CST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 133.8 degrees East , 75 kilometres southwest of Bulman and 90 kilometres northeast of Beswick .
Movement: south southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

12P LAM 150220 0600 14.4S 133.8E SHEM 40 993

[jaguarjace]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam report:
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/nt/nttc20150217.shtml