Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

EF-5bigj · #21 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:46 pm

Not surpised by the moderate risk given how unstable the atmosphere is and everything is coming together.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:41 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

EF-5bigj · #23 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 2:55 pm

The scariest thing about this is the evening convection strong/violent tornadoes at night is very bad. There is a strongly rotating supercell in MO right now.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #24 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 3:46 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ACROSS WW AREA
THROUGH LATE EVE AS CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FOCUS INVOF DEVELOPING
SRN KS SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT. MORE ISOLD STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM SSWWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE. TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH
DIURNAL CYCLE AND CONTINUE ENE MOVEMENT OF SWRN U.S. UPR LVL SPEED
MAX.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

#25 Postby **PDinKS** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 4:28 pm

Ugh. I had better get some sleep this afternoon; I have a feeling I will be up all night.... :eek:

EF-5bigj · #26 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:54 pm

I've been following the event on twitter and supercells are firing in KS and OK now.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:21 pm

Is there are link to chasers that are out there following this event?

#28 Postby **ravyrn** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is there are link to chasers that are out there following this event?

https://tvnweather.com/live/

http://www.chasertv.com/

EF-5bigj · #29 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:33 pm

I follow Reed mainly but also basehunters.

#30 Postby **PDinKS** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:51 pm

Cycloneye, try https://tvnweather.com/live/

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:05 pm

Thanks for the links.There are many but they have to be careful as we have seen in the past incidents and is nighttime.

#32 Postby **ravyrn** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Thanks for the links.There are many but they have to be careful as we have seen in the past incidents and is nighttime.

Agreed 100%. I am watching Kelley Williamson's stream and he just ran through a stop sign turning right and just about nailed a truck going the opposite direction.

EF-5bigj · #33 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:11 pm

I'm thinking Thursday will be the bigger day now but who knows we might get some nighttime supercells.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:44 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
832 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GARDEN
PLAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLWICH...GARDEN PLAIN...MOUNT HOPE AND ANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9776 3774 9770 3782 9770 3790 9765
3783 9747 3763 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 213DEG 10KT 3771 9769

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

BILLINGS WRIGHT

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #35 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:44 pm

Picture of the tornado near Medicine Lodge, Kansas earlier:

Bunkertor · #36 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:25 am

Uh, that is a good sized cone.

EF-5bigj · #37 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:52 pm

Storms are firing now way earlier then yesterday.

Bunkertor · #38 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 09, 2015 4:01 pm

Yes Storms are fireing in Dave land

Bunkertor · #39 Postby **Bunkertor** » Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:54 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMANCHE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

EF-5bigj · #40 Postby **EF-5bigj** » Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:47 pm

TWC is showing a large tornado on the ground on the TX/LA boarder.

Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

Re: Significant Severe Weather Event Possible 4/8-9/15

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