ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Hammy]

Almost makes me wonder what the point of mentioning it was to start with.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2015071718, , BEST, 0, 109N, 393W, 25, 1011, WV

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N46W TO 17N43W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB
TROUGHING THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IT IS LIKELY
ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IMPACTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1009 MB NOW
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

[gatorcane]

Almost makes me wonder what the point of mentioning it was to start with.

Yeah I am not sure why they even did unless they see it as a good practice opportunity. Maybe they wanted to test some new tools they have?

[floridasun78]

ok i talk to nhc their ((not using invest as test)) their is low shear next two days he say bad news gator wont go over islands going to north of islands their was support for invest by models so let see what it do

[gatorcane]

ok i talk to nhc their ((not using invest as test)) their is low shear next two days he say bad news gator wont go over islands going to north of islands their was support for invest by models so let see what it do

Too bad for the islands then. Low-level vorticity is pretty good actually:

[floridasun78]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

i spoke nhc about you wx their was support for system by models plus shear low next two days he say for you look models better and shear forecast he say one models did gave support

[wxman57]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

i spoke nhc about you wx their was support for system by models plus shear low next two days he say for you look models better and shear forecast he say one models did gave support

I saw no model support other than indications of a tropical wave. It takes more than light wind shear for development. Development chances are near zero.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend before becoming much less conducive
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

i spoke nhc about you wx their was support for system by models plus shear low next two days he say for you look models better and shear forecast he say one models did gave support

What models show this developing? There is nothing that even hints of such that I have seen. Guess if you're looking for a shear storm, you can track that all weekend thru next week.

[TheStormExpert]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

i spoke nhc about you wx their was support for system by models plus shear low next two days he say for you look models better and shear forecast he say one models did gave support

What models show this developing? There is nothing that even hints of such that I have seen. Guess if you're looking for a shear storm, you can track that all weekend thru next week.

Conditions from here look to get gradually unfavorable over the weekend before quickly going unfavorable next week.

[floridasun78]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

i spoke nhc about you wx their was support for system by models plus shear low next two days he say for you look models better and shear forecast he say one models did gave support

What models show this developing? There is nothing that even hints of such that I have seen. Guess if you're looking for a shear storm, you can track that all weekend thru next week.

he did not say but he say do have models support one of their models their are pro he say going be low shear area next day or two he say this lowest shear seen this hurr season that area

[Yellow Evan]

This thing does have a good MJO pulse coming towards it.

Any activity this year will be due to MJO pulses in the deep tropics.

[cycloneye]

Hasta la vista 93L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the tropical wave midway between the
coast of Africa and the Windward Islands has diminished.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting convection blowup to the southeast of now former 93L. Though will more than likely fizzle out like 93L.

[OuterBanker]

Maybe TPC tagged 93L just so all us could see just how bad things are in the MDR.

[gatorcane]

it's only July. Development should not be expected out that far in the Atlantic this early.

[gatorcane]

I think you are referring to the disturbance behind ex-93L, which by they way, looks as good as 93L did at one point but there is no invest tag on it. To be fair, no models develop it. Still very good spin to this system. Probably will lose it's convection within 12-24 hours like 93L did.

[tailgater]

Weak LLC at 8N 53 W.
I am little surprised this isn't trying to develop. I guess there isn't enough pressure difference or something but all the terrible conditions that were called for haven't developed along this southerly track, hopefully it'll bring some extra rain for the islands.

[img] http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... 6bsEsB.jpg[/img]