ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure area near Little River
Inlet, North Carolina has not become better organized during the
past few hours. While upper-level winds are at best marginally
conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form
this afternoon or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move
into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will
continue to spread along the coastal areas of North Carolina this
afternoon and tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

Likely no upgrade despite decent winds being found as the center appears to be inland now.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


12Z Euro has an identifiable low just offshore the outer banks in 18 hours, skirting the shore before then. With this being so close and the euros left bias I think there's at least a small chance this moves offshore and stays offshore.

[TheStormExpert]

@MichaelRLowry: Recon estimating near TS winds w/ #95L but well east of surface low. Likely gradient induced. Looks shallow warm but tilted.

[wxman57]

Center wasn't offshore long. Convectionless LLC is inland and moving north toward NC. No development.

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[CrazyC83]

Surface data will be the key.

However, in terms of impacts, it is all semantics...no difference between a 40 knot frontal boundary with no circulation at all and a 40 knot tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure area near Wilmington, North Carolina.

1. Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity
associated with the low pressure area near Wilmington, North
Carolina is poorly organized. However, an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an area of gale-force winds over the
Atlantic Ocean well to the east and southeast of the center. There
is still a short window of opportunity for this system to become a
tropical cyclone before it merges with a frontal system Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
gusty winds will continue to spread along the coastal areas of North
Carolina through tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface data indicate that the area of low pressure located over
southeastern North Carolina has become less defined during the past
several hours. The associated thunderstorm activity also remains
poorly organized, and the potential for this system to become a
tropical cyclone is decreasing. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to continue to produce gale-force winds over
portions of the western Atlantic tonight before merging with a
frontal system tomorrow. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brown