ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:38 am

Old thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117503

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                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL992015  08/29/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    28    32    40    47    54    60    64    65    66    64
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    28    32    40    47    54    60    64    65    66    64
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    23    24    29    35    42    50    56    59    61    60
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    17    11    13    15    10    10    14     9     9    12    17    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -3    -1     0     2     7     5     5     7     4     3    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR         91    88    74    63    67    66   101   122   157   146   208   247   265
SST (C)         28.0  27.9  27.8  27.8  27.8  28.2  28.3  28.1  27.7  27.2  26.7  26.5  26.4
POT. INT. (KT)   137   134   133   133   134   139   140   137   132   126   121   119   118
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   131   130   131   131   136   136   132   125   119   113   111   109
200 MB T (C)   -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     8     8     6     5     5     5     6     5     5     6     7
700-500 MB RH     63    67    70    72    72    74    74    72    74    71    70    62    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    90    95   100    93    94    88    75    62    47    42    46    14    18
200 MB DIV         2    12    26    38    36    23    35    58    78    59    59    33    -3
700-850 TADV       6     2    -1    -4    -5    -8    -5    -3    -7     4     6     7    13
LAND (KM)         56   105   158   186   218   341   471   552   655   814  1005  1215  1396
LAT (DEG N)     10.2  10.3  10.4  10.7  10.9  11.7  12.7  13.7  14.9  16.0  17.1  18.0  19.0
LONG(DEG W)     15.1  15.9  16.6  17.4  18.3  19.9  21.3  22.5  23.6  25.0  26.6  28.4  30.2
STM SPEED (KT)    12     7     8     9     9     9     8     8     8     9    10    10    10
HEAT CONTENT       6     5     6     6     7    11    17    12     4     1    17     8     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16      CX,CY: -14/ -3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  406  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  41.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  28.  31.  33.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   4.   7.   9.  11.  11.  12.  10.   9.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -14.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   8.  12.  20.  27.  34.  40.  44.  45.  46.  44.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST     08/29/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.4 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 112.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   6.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:45 am

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with
a broad area of low pressure located just west of the coast of west
Africa. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
toward the Cape Verde Islands at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:54 am

99L INVEST 150829 0600 10.0N 15.9W ATL 25 1008
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#4 Postby fci » Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:52 am

Oh good, when Erika dies we have a new one to track for the next 2 weeks or so.
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#5 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:46 am

Looking pretty good this morning:

Image

Image
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#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:38 am

NHC being bullish.
50/70

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a low pressure area located just off the coast of Africa about
150 miles west of Conakry, Guinea. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves
northwestward and then west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde
Islands at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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#7 Postby ninel conde » Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:16 am

should recurve east of 35w. ridge is broken as i posted a few days ago.
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Re:

#8 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:23 am

ninel conde wrote:should recurve east of 35w. ridge is broken as i posted a few days ago.

Sigh.
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:44 am

When was the last time the Cape Verde islands had a direct landfall by a tropical storm or hurricane? This might just be one...
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Re:

#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:58 am

CrazyC83 wrote:When was the last time the Cape Verde islands had a direct landfall by a tropical storm or hurricane? This might just be one...


Going through https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_W ... hurricanes , I couldn't find a system with a center passing right through or over the islands as a TS. Only TDs and very close calls, such as Tropical Storms Beryl (1982) and Fran (1984). As for hurricanes, Jeanne (1998) moved SW of the islands as a category 1, but it did not make landfall or hit the islands.

A TS with a Cape Verde islands direct hit/landfall would indeed be something very special.
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#11 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:29 am

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... ane-season

A solid disturbance coming off the west African coast could further organize as it heads toward the Cape Verde Islands and affects their weather by Monday-Tuesday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L- Discussion

#12 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:39 am

Bla...recurve very likely here.
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:12 pm

Looks quite good. Not seeing much of any movement right now. Saved loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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#14 Postby YoshiMike » Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:15 pm

I find the CoC to be around 9 north, 16 west, if it were to have one yet. You're right gatorcane, its already looking better than Erika imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L- Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:35 pm

Up to 70%-90%

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 175 miles west of Conakry, Guinea, continue to
become better organized. A tropical depression could form during
the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and then
west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L- Discussion

#16 Postby Weatherlover12 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:54 pm

I see the Models have it turning west at the end of the run. is this going out to sea or should the U.S watch this in case this decides to travel west for a long time?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L- Discussion

#17 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:06 pm

Weatherlover12 wrote:I see the Models have it turning west at the end of the run. is this going out to sea or should the U.S watch this in case this decides to travel west for a long time?

It's very much likely that this could become a fish, whereas the likelyhood is lower if it keeps going west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L- Discussion

#18 Postby YoshiMike » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:14 pm

Its also way too early to tell. Its not even across the pond yet.
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#19 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:19 pm

This one has FISH written all over it.

Cape Verde systems almost always fish or ride real low and turn into Caribbean Cruisers and effect Mexico. Very tough to get one into the CONUS.
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#20 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:21 pm

It's hard to say it will be a fish storm since this storm could potentially hit Cape Verde if it strengthens quickly.
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