WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

We could soon have three category 4s in the EPAC.

[euro6208]

Incredible activity in the CPAC and EPAC...

[1900hurricane]

Kilo is entering the view of Himawari-8, although you can tell it is still way over on the edge of the disk.

[Yellow Evan]

Also making a run at 140.

[dexterlabio]

The Pacific is on fire, wow...oh wait no surprise here, El Nino is raging on currently...

[Yellow Evan]

Cat 4.

WTPA21 PHFO 300245
TCMCP1

HURRICANE KILO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 176.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 130SE 160SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 176.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 175.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.8N 177.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 178.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.1N 179.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.2N 179.3E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 177.0E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 174.5E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 176.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

THE EYE OF KILO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A BANDING FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT
6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC. THE
UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS 122 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 115 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...MAKING KILO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

THE LATEST IMAGES SHOW THAT KILO HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN SET TO 290/8
KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT HEADS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THAT A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL TURN IT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND ARE
PROJECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA
DATA SHOW ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR KILO TO PEAK AT 130 KT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115
KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE IVCN. THE IVCN
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY HWRF WHICH CALLS FOR MUCH
MORE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ALONG A TRACK
THAT IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE
THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LEVELS IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE
KILO MAY GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 18.4N 176.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 18.8N 177.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.9N 178.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 21.1N 179.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 24.2N 179.3E 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 177.0E 115 KT 135 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 174.5E 115 KT 135 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Ntxw]

Warm that eye a little bit more and we should see raw T7.0's



----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 18:17:04 N Lon : 176:19:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Kingarabian]

Wow Kilo! Completely forgot it's a major.

[Yellow Evan]

Right now, I'd go with 125. Like to see a + eye before going higher.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN25 KNES 300554
TCSCNP

A. 03C (KILO)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 18.3N

D. 176.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.0 BASED ON BL RING WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED BY
WH. PT=6.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

Making a run at Cat 5.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2015 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 18:19:01 N Lon : 176:37:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 929.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +2.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

ADT is using GOES-15 with the measuring angle being pretty big at over 50*. With that angle, I wonder if it is possible that some of the eye isn't being seen by the satellite.

Also starting to see some warm medium greys poking in on the higher-resolution Himawari-8.

[mrbagyo]

ADT is using GOES-15 with the measuring angle being pretty big at over 50*. With that angle, I wonder if it is possible that some of the eye isn't being seen by the satellite.

Also starting to see some warm medium greys poking in on the higher-resolution Himawari-8.

Yeah.Even the mtsat is kinda off angle.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OF KILO HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE EYE HAS COOLED AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER
HAVE DECREASED IN AREA AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITIES WERE 6.0/115KT FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 6.5/127KT FROM
PHFO. I HAVE DECREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 115 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

KILO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 300/8 KT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW KILO MAINTAINING
THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 48
HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
WEAK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
BY 72 HOURS AND CAUSING IT TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.

THE 1200 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHEAR SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT ABOUT 575 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE THAT HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY MAY HAVE
PEAKED FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT SHIPS SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 29C. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS. KILO COULD SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER
72 HOURS AS SHEAR RELAXES A BIT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 18.9N 177.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.6N 178.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 21.1N 179.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 22.7N 179.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.0N 179.5E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.0N 178.5E 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 25.0N 177.0E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 25.0N 175.0E 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the steering mechanisms that have forced Kilo to move more poleward for the time being have also pushed a little bit of dry air into the circulation, but Kilo seems to be rebounding pretty well. The latest Coriolis pass shows a new eyewall beginning to take over. Overall, cloud tops are much colder than its contemporaries.





It'll be interesting to see the intensity Kilo achieves/maintains in the coming days while at a somewhat higher latitude. 25*N or so is a fairly high latitude to maintain a category 4/5 tropical cyclone in the open Pacific, but the waters will remain plenty warm enough and Kilo will probably be at least somewhat sheltered by the rebuilding ridge that is expected to force it back westwards, but the mid-latitude influences that can weaken tropical cyclones won't be lurking too far away. The global models are pretty aggressive with strength, so we'll see how it all plays out.

[supercane]

WTPA41 PHFO 302106
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

THE EYE OF KILO FILLED IN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGES THIS
MORNING INDICATED SOME WARMING. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY AT
115 KT...AND THE UW/CIMSS ADT ANALYSIS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED 110 KT.
GIVEN THE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES...THIS ADVISORY WILL
USE THE ADT VALUE OF 110 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

KILO APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING ITS GRADUAL RIGHT TURN
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 310/07 KT. THE OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING KILO CONTINUING TOWARD THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS THE IMPACT OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE WHICH
AFFECTS WHEN THE WESTWARD TURN TAKES PLACE. THUS...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTERWARD TO LINE UP CLOSER WITH THE GFEX CONSENSUS.

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 29C. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH
HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR THAT RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE
OF INTENSITY OUTCOMES. SHIPS...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FOR ITS
ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS...IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAKENING AND TAKES
KILO DOWN TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE...GFDL
AND GHMI SHOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THE
MIDDLE ROAD AND FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 19.4N 178.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 20.5N 178.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 22.0N 179.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.4N 179.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.3N 179.4E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 24.6N 178.6E 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 24.5N 177.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 174.5E 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[1900hurricane]

Ha, palindrome intensity forecast.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015

KILO HAS HAD A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ALL DAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL VERY HEALTHY IN THE EYEWALL WITH CLOUD TOPS PUSHING ABOVE
THE -80C LEVEL. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM
SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 120 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE
HELD AT 110 KT. A 2150 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO REFINE THE INITIAL
WIND RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 320/08 KT WITH KILO
MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO
WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE DIFFERS IN THE MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS. AN INTERESTING
OUTLIER IS THE HWRF WHICH TAKES KILO ON A NORTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A 180 DEGREE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OPTS TO FOLLOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS AND NUDGES
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS...OR GFEX.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SO KILO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A VERY HEALTHY CYCLONE.
THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.
SHIPS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN KILO...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVELY AS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HWRF SHOWS SOME WEAKENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SHIPS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES KILO INTO THE
CATEGORY 5 RANGE BY 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS KILO TO 100 KT IN THE 36 TO
48 HOUR TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINS KILO AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 20.0N 178.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.0N 178.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 23.5N 179.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.3N 179.6E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 24.7N 178.3E 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 24.5N 176.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA